Planning for Omicron should have started in November

51-Jacob-John Dr T. Jacob John

DELTA WAS FIRST detected in India in December 2020. It caused a wave by the end of March this year. Now, think of Omicron. It was first detected in Karnataka on December 2 and then in Delhi, Maharashtra and other states. An avalanche begins at the top of the mountain with a few snowflakes. A wave of Covid-19 builds up like an avalanche. We cannot predict what Omicron will do, but we can anticipate the range of what it can do.

It can create an avalanche of infections. Omicron will definitely reach everybody. It will hit 100 per cent of us. Because it spreads faster than Delta, I expect a surge in infections in late January. I do not think it would be delayed beyond February. But, a surge in infections is not a wave; a surge in disease is. There can be infection without disease. However, as more people get infected, the elderly and others who are more at risk, are also likely to get infected. This can lead to disease and even death. So, if we let the surge in infections become real, that could lead to a wave of disease.

Therefore, while it is not possible to predict whether Omicron will lead to a third wave, it is wise to take precautions. Only 44 per cent of India has received the second dose. The government will give data about the adult population because, by policy, vaccination was only given to adults. If we consider only that number, the percentage will be higher because we are reducing the denominator by including only adults. That’s unscientific and untrue.

We should have created immunity in a larger number of people. And, we should not have left our children unimmunised. All this was known. This is not the way of handling an impending crisis. Now, the urgent need is to think in terms of the probability of a third wave, its magnitude, how it will affect senior citizens and others at risk. We have already lost time. On December 2, when Omicron was reported in India or on November 26, when the WHO declared it a variant of concern, we should have been planning from then.

Had I been the decision maker, there would have been a blitzkrieg of messaging about vaccination. It should have said that if you are not vaccinated, and if you get sick, you are on your own. But, if you have got at least two doses, and preferably a booster, then, if you fall sick, we will look after you. In certain types of vaccines, the virus multiplies inside the body. This could lead to lifelong immunity. But, mostly boosters would be needed. In fact, the term fully vaccinated itself is wrong. It is a continuum. If you give two doses, it is only the beginning of vaccination.

Dr T. Jacob John is retired professor and former head of department, clinical virology and microbiology, CMC Vellore

—As told to Pooja Biraia Jaiswal