Eight years ago, when Amit Shah went to Uttar Pradesh as a BJP general secretary, he worked his magic to help the party win 71 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. In 2017, as BJP president, he guided it to 312 out of 403 assembly seats. In the coming assembly polls, the home minister has picked the toughest assignment for himself—western Uttar Pradesh and Braj.
The electoral performance in western Uttar Pradesh, dominated by farming communities—especially the Jats—was key to the party’s success in both 2014 and 2017. But, the farmers’ protest changed things. Farmers in western Uttar Pradesh, perhaps inspired by the strategy of their counterparts in Punjab, were not allowing party leaders to campaign in their villages.
In view of the resilience of the agitation, the BJP has made a strategic retreat by announcing that the three contentious farm laws would be repealed. Earlier, too, the Modi government has shown that it weighs in the political cost of its policy decisions.
For instance, it went back on the land acquisition ordinance in 2015. It also made changes to the GST before the last assembly polls in Gujarat, to counter the anger among traders. With regard to the farm laws, BJP leaders said that “Hindu-Sikh unity” coming under threat weighed on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s mind. “As the PM said, we tried to convince people, but we could not do so,” said Sardar R.P. Singh, BJP national spokesperson. “People were misled that their land would be taken by Adanis and Ambanis. We could not let [the situation in] Punjab go back to [the unrest in the] the 1980s and 1990s.”
In Punjab, the BJP’s senior leaders will start campaigning only after the laws are repealed in Parliament and the farmers’ unions lift the ‘embargo’ on electioneering. However, the state leaders are watching the situation closely as they fear that an attempt may be made to stretch the agitation till 2024.
“It was not an agitation against the laws, but against Modi,” said senior BJP leader Harjit Singh Grewal. “Some people were trying to turn it into a Sikhs versus government issue. They were trying to discredit the government. These people may not call off the protest before 2024. But, if they do so, they will be exposed. People will turn against them.”
Grewal was one of two Punjab leaders who met Modi and Shah in January to provide feedback from the ground. “We had told the PM that it was a protest against him,” he said. “Farmers’ leaders have different ideologies and were against the PM. The famers were ready to fight to the death as they were misguided by the famers’ leaders that their land would be snatched from them.”
The BJP also sees a chance to contest in all 117 seats in Punjab, up from the 23 it used to get from former ally Akali Dal. But, it has its task cut out in the state, where three other key contenders are in the fray: the Congress, the Akali Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance and the Aam Aadmi Party.
Though the decision to repeal the laws was a major victory for the farmers’ unions of Punjab, the farmers of western Uttar Pradesh feel they have not benefited as much. They had faced massive distress, were owed sugarcane dues and were forced to sell their wheat below the minimum support price (MSP). And, like the farmers in Punjab and Haryana, they, too, want a robust MSP system. Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Rakesh Tikait made the pitch for legal guarantee of MSP as a condition before the protests are called off. The farmers’ leaders in Punjab said they would support Tikait as he had supported them in the year-long agitation.
The situation in western Uttar Pradesh seems to be getting more challenging for the BJP as the elections draw closer. The Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal is drawing crowds in the region. The RLD represented the Jats, before they shifted en masse to the BJP. It had suffered electorally in the recent past as the religious polarisation wiped out caste parties. Now, with renewed hope, it will firm up its alliance with the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party, which is also drawing other smaller parties to its side. The RLD had put its weight behind Tikait, who became the face of the agitation in the region.
“Even though the farm laws have been withdrawn, it is too late,” said RLD national spokesperson Surendra Kumar Sharma. “The voters have already made up their mind. The RLD is getting huge traction among farmers. The BJP will not benefit in western Uttar Pradesh.” The BJP had made gains in the state because of polarisation. But, Sharma said that no one would get distracted by it now. “The Muslim-Hindu communities are behind the RLD and SP,” he said.
It is clear that it will take more deft manoeuvring from the BJP to reduce the antagonism against it. The party is trying to win over smaller castes. Shah, like in the past, is wooing the non-Yadav and non-Jatav castes and engaging with smaller caste parties. Even if there was Muslim-Jat unity in western UP, it may not be enough to counter the BJP, if it gets the support of other castes. Its messaging to the other castes would be based on development, hindutva and a stronger law and order scenario, the main planks of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s government. The party will soon launch yatras across the state to create a favourable atmosphere.
Rajkumar Chahar, BJP Kisan Morcha chief and Fatehpur Sikri MP, reiterated that there was no political motive in introducing the laws or repealing them. “I can say with conviction that the BJP is very strong in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, and will form the government,” he said. “The situation is different in Punjab, but we will do well. We will do well in western UP, too.”
The success of the farmers’ agitation is an important lesson on mass civic movements. If agitations remain non-violent and are sustained long enough, they can achieve the desired results, especially if they have the potential to harm the ruling dispensation politically. Now, politicians are even worried about the possibility of the farmers’ leaders entering politics.