UNTIL A FEW weeks ago, the political landscape in Tamil Nadu appeared relatively stable, with little indication of major shifts. But the entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay, contesting from two constituencies has injected an X factor into the contest. Vijay’s party, the Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) is not organisationally strong, but his stardom, charisma and popularity among women and the youth can work to his advantage.
At the outset, there is little doubt that the TVK is cutting into the vote banks of all major parties. But the extent of this erosion varies across regions. In the southern, central and northern districts, including Chennai, the TVK is likely to eat into DMK votes. In the western and northwestern districts, its impact may be felt more strongly by the AIADMK. A major casualty will be Thol. Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, whose vote share will be greatly disrupted across the state.
Vijay’s political debut, though untested, needs to be seen seriously. Not only does he pose a challenge to the DMK and the AIADMK, but he also threatens the support base of smaller regional and national parties, especially the Congress. The dalit and Muslim youth, for instance, may gravitate towards Vijay.
Also Read
- Battle for Tamil Nadu: AIADMK's comeback bid, DMK's legacy and the rise of new forces
- ‘The battle is between Tamil culture and BJP's fascism’: TN CM M.K. Stalin
- Tamil Nadu elections | Less is more? How Vijay is trying to make his absence speak
- Tamil Nadu Elections: Can Palaniswami revive AIADMK's past glory?
- ‘As a warrior, you stand alone’: Seeman
Demographically, voters above 30 make up 90 per cent of the electorate. This provides some stability to established parties. Even if a significant portion of voters under 30, along with 2-3 per cent of older voters, shift towards the TVK, its overall vote share would still be in the range of 8 to 12 percent. Predictions about Vijay getting a 20 per cent vote share seem improbable, since he is the party’s sole star campaigner, with limited capacity for an extensive statewide campaign.
What is most notable is that the prospects of the DMK, which previously appeared to hold a position of advantage, is see-sawing. In the coming days, the shifts in voter sentiment will be crucial in determining the outcome. By and large, the impact of the TVK is likely to be moderated, but it can still emerge as a decisive spoiler in the 2026 elections.
The author is a veteran media professor and communication expert.