THE PAHALGAM ATTACK has cast a deep shadow over Jammu and Kashmir’s fragile political landscape, with the debate over the restoration of statehood coming to a sudden halt. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who had raised hopes of leading the push for statehood, has chosen to step back on the issue for now.
The National Conference, in its manifesto, had promised to fight for statehood, and on the day of the attack, its ally, the Congress, had even launched a campaign demanding the same. But post the attack, the focus has shifted to showing solidarity with victims and a pitch for national unity.
In his address during a special session of the assembly that condemned the attack, Abdullah said he would not do “cheap politics”. “Curse be upon me if I go to the Centre at this critical juncture and demand statehood...,” he said. “We have talked of statehood in the past and we will talk about it in future, but not right now.”
Political analysts said the Centre is comfortable with Abdullah’s leadership. He is non-aggressive and in line with the national security narrative. “There is a sense in Delhi that he has matured,” said an analyst.
The BJP-led Centre has, on several occasions, said that statehood will be restored “at an appropriate time”. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too, said the same while inaugurating a tunnel project in Sonamarg on January 13. Sources said the Centre views Jammu and Kashmir’s Union territory status as an ongoing experiment. It allows more administrative control and reduces the chance of political unrest. The fact that there have been no major protests since the removal of Article 370 supports this belief.
Two key processes are also causing delay: the national census and the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies. The census, which was delayed owing to Covid-19, is now expected to start after July 2025, and the delimitation process in 2026. Until both are completed, statehood is unlikely to return.
Security concerns also remain a major factor. Despite the killing of militants in encounters, security forces, especially in Jammu, have suffered serious losses. The Centre believes it cannot afford to loosen its control while these threats continue.
Several laws introduced after 2019 are also part of the government’s security plan. These include rules limiting land rights and job eligibility, especially for those with any connection to militancy. The National Conference has promised to review these laws, including the Public Safety Act and the one on police verification for jobs and passports. However, the BJP sees these laws as essential to fighting militancy.
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It is clear that statehood is now a long-term goal that depends more on New Delhi’s decisions than on pressure from Srinagar. Unless the Centre introduces a statehood bill in the summer session of Parliament, it is unlikely anything will change before 2028. Political focus has now moved to issues like the Uniform Civil Code, said to be the BJP’s next big project after Ram Mandir and Article 370.
For now, Abdullah has chosen not to rock the boat. He has asked his MLAs to be patient, even as they complain that, under the Union territory setup, bureaucrats often ignore them owing to their limited powers. Whether his choice helps him politically or harms his party will depend on how long New Delhi keeps the statehood promise on hold.