Russian President Vladimir Putin thought so. Israeli PM Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu believed it. And, in his inimitable style, US President Donald Trump had already promised to send Iran “back to the Stone Ages”.
It was a set paradigm that modern wars would be short and decisive yet intense. It was a set fundamental belief that military strategists of every major country believed in, including India. Accordingly, military doctrines were devised on that assumption.
To cite an instance. Till 1999, India’s War Wastage Reserves (WWR)—the reserve of ammunition to meet the requirements of intense war or a full-scale war for the Armed Forces—was maintained for 40 days which was cut to 20 and then to 10 days. But after the border row with China escalated, in 2020, the WWR was again raised to 15 days.
And now, in Iran, it is already the third time in just four years that this paradigm is being seriously questioned globally.
The idea of modern wars to be short-lived, yet intense but decisive, stems from the concept of Revolution in Military Affairs or RMA which gained currency in the 1990s leading to its adoption in most modern militaries.
RMA rested on three basic assumptions. First, with military technology making huge strides, there would be precision targeting yet with devastating effect and minimal collateral damage which would all lead to yielding fast decisions like victories or defeats. Second, the US demonstrated its vast technological superiority in the Gulf war in 1991 leading strategists to believe that this was to be the dominating trend in all future conflicts. Third, with network centric warfare becoming the norm, the process of decision-making would be faster leading to more effective war-fighting. This, in turn, would lead to faster decisions in wars.
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When Russia mounted a military foray into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, President Vladimir Putin called it a “special forces operation”—which implied a tactical mission in the mistaken understanding that it would be a short affair. After all, how could it be that Ukraine could hold off for long against a military superpower like Russia?
But later developments proved otherwise. The Russia-Ukraine war has transformed itself into a Russia versus western powers conflict that is still ongoing after at least 5,00,000 soldiers and civilians have been killed, and counting, on both sides.
The next conflict began when Israel launched a ground assault on Gaza, 20 days after a blitzkrieg attack by Hamas militants from the narrow Gaza Strip into Israel on October 7, 2023. There was a belief that Israel, with its ultra sophisticated weaponry and very professional military would make short shrift of Gaza—just a 365 sq km big corridor that was home to about 23 lakh people.
Despite widespread destruction and loss of about 1,00,000 people on both sides, the conflict is yet to see its logical end.
Finally, when US President Donald Trump and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu decided to embark on a military campaign in Iran on February 28, the expectation was that it would be completed in just a week or so. It has now lasted for more than a month and yet to see an abatement. Rather, it is more indicative of a protracted engagement.
These wars have laid bare the fact that modern military strategies have been based on wrong assumptions. Preconceived ‘finite wars’ are now becoming ‘forever wars’.