Is the US targeting Cuba next? Trump's new tariffs on Havana explained

US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that the country plans to impose additional tariffs on countries that provide oil to Cuba.

A White House statement called the Havana government “an unusual and extraordinary threat,” “to the national security and foreign policy of the United States”.

The proposal for the levies has not come out of nowhere. The US have been repeatedly threatening action against the “regime that aligned with numerous hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors adverse to the United States, including the Government of the Russian Federation (Russia), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Government of Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah.”

Last week, a report by the Wall Street Journal stated the the US government was seeking regime change in Havana to “push out its communist regime”, citing unnamed US officials. Creating a total blockade of oil imports to the country is a possible part of this drive, Politico reported.

The WSJ report had also stated that the the recent abduction of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro was left as a” blueprint and a warning for Cuba”

Who will be impacted by the tariffs?

The tariffs, if imposed, will primarily target Mexico, Russia and Algeria, three of the four countries that have been supplying Havana with all of its oil. Mexico supplied 44 per cent of Cuban oil imports, and Russia makes up about 10 per cent; Algeria provides a smaller amount, according to Financial Times figures.

Before Maduro's capture, Venezuela had provided 33 per cent of Cuba's oil imports. However, the county's oil supply went offline after the abduction.

On January 11, Trump wrote, “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,”

Cuba now solely relies on Mexico for its oil. A recent report said that Mexico's state-owned Pemex shipped about 20,000 barrels of oil per day from Cuba from January to September 2025.

The country has been trying to balance its ties to Cuba amid the current US pressure.

Why does the US wants a regime change in Cuba?

The WSJ report had stated that the Trump administration is actively working with insiders in the Cuban government to facilitate a regime change in Cuba, which is currently led by President Miguel Diaz-Canel.

The report also said that the employing the same strategy they used in Venezuela, in Cuba, may not yield similar results.

Cuba is located just 150 kilometres away from the southern US states of Florida. Thousands of Cubans have left the island for the US, citing economic trouble in the country. The US has also long accused Cuba of harbouring transnational terrorist groups like the Hezbollah and hosting Russian intelligence facilities and building defence cooperation with China. The White House stated that the US will impose the tariffs on countries that export oil to Cuba as part of a national emergency threatening the security of the country.

Cuba has been trapped in a fuel, energy, medicine and foreign exchange crisis amid an economic embargo or a blockade imposed by the US on the country, which prevents us citizens and businesses from conducting trade with Havana since the 1960.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also of Cuban descent and has been a critic of the country’s communist government. On Wednesday, Rubio said, “There's no doubt about the fact that it would be of great benefit to the United States if Cuba were no longer governed by an autocratic regime," he added. In a post on Truth Social, Trump had suggested Rubio could become the president of Cuba after the abduction of Maduro. “Sounds good to me!” he said.

The Venezuelan subsidised oil had allowed the country’s oil-dependent system to function.

With Venezuela out of the picture, the US is seeking to profit from Cuba via regime change. If a regime change occurs, a US oil corporation that had its assets seized decades ago during the Cuban revolution may line up to sue the country seeking a recoup of hundreds of millions of dollars.

A Cuban diplomat, Carlos de Cespedes, who spoke to Al Jazeera last Thursday, said that “The US is carrying out international piracy in the Caribbean Sea that is restricting and blocking the arrival of oil to Cuba.”