Will USA's capture of Maduro and attack on Caracas help Machado become Venezuelan premier?

U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday said that the United States had captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, and flown them out of the country. “The United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the country,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

READ HERE | Trump says US captured Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro after large-scale strikes in Caracas

At least seven explosions and low-flying aircraft were heard around 2 a.m. local time on Saturday in the capital, Caracas. Venezuela’s government accused the United States of attacking civilian and military installations in multiple states. The Federal Aviation Authority has banned U.S. commercial flights in Venezuelan airspace due to ongoing military activity following the explosions in Caracas. The development comes amid the U.S. military having targeted, in recent days, alleged drug-smuggling boats. On Friday, Venezuela said it was open to negotiating an agreement with the U.S. to combat drug trafficking.

READ HERE | Explosions shake Caracas, capital of Venezuela after Trump warning of possible attacks

THE WEEK spoke with R. Viswanathan, a distinguished retired Indian diplomat and a leading expert on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). India’s Ambassador to Venezuela from 2000 to 2003, he said Nicolas Maduro is a puppet being handled by a bigger group, and even his death cannot ensure María Corina Machado getting to lead the country. Caracas’ powerful men will fight to the death before letting a pro-U.S. government take charge, he said. While the Venezuelan people deserve a change, it should happen internally and not through U.S. war machinery. Excerpts from a brief telephonic interaction:

Did you see this coming?

He had been threatening for so long. I’m surprised it took so much time, and when he realised, he was in no position to stop this or have any deterrents against Trump. If it was North Korea, he wouldn’t do it. If it was China or Russia, he wouldn’t do it. But the U.S. did it with Saddam Hussein because he didn’t have a nuclear bomb. He did it with Gaddafi, and they did it in Afghanistan. So they think that Venezuela is a low-hanging fruit. They can hit and get away with it. There is no surprise that he really did it.

Is a land invasion really on the horizon?

Americans have got Venezuela in a difficult position. A full-scale invasion is not necessary. They can squeeze and make life further miserable for the Venezuelan people. They have stopped oil shipments, blocked ports, and do not allow airlines to fly. What else is needed? They would be squeezed and they would suffer.

How do you think South America is going to react?

The U.S. doesn’t really care about South American nations. They will do whatever they want to do, and they have already been doing so for long, since the Cold War and even before that. They have always changed regimes, invaded, occupied, supported dictatorships, and created whatever mess they wanted. Here also they would do whatever they want and get away with it. No one can stop it.

Brazil, Mexico and Colombia have been making some noises, but they won’t go all out in support of Maduro. Trump can retaliate and cause more problems for them. They need the U.S., so they will not go beyond a point to confront the United States.

What is going to happen to Maduro now?

Hugo Chávez had joined UNASUR and Mercosur, and thus an attack of this magnitude back then would have become an issue for the whole group. But the foolish Maduro alienated President Lula da Silva of Brazil and Colombian President Gustavo Petro — both leftists — because they were not supportive of his election rigging. Verbally attacking these leaders was unwise, foolish and feeble from Maduro’s side. So now they don’t have great sympathy for him.

Also, this is not a one-man dictatorship. This is a collective dictatorship. Maduro is only a front man with no charisma or grassroots support. He is not like Chávez. So killing Maduro or removing him from power is not going to bring María Corina Machado into power. The collective behind Maduro won’t let her, because if she comes to power, the first thing she would do is hand over the top generals, cabinet ministers, oil company chiefs and everyone else to the United States. They all have lots of trumped-up cases against them. So the Venezuelan leadership cannot afford a transfer of power to the pro-American opposition, which would be suicidal. They would die fighting.

Like Saudi Arabia and China, Trump has no problem dealing with them, right? So he could have done something to not get into this mess. But when Lula said they knew it was a disputed election, this guy went and attacked Lula, and even Petro of Colombia. That was very unwise, foolish and feeble.

Is this the USA’s shadow war for Venezuela’s oil reserves?

After the shale revolution, the United States has become the biggest producer of oil and gas, and they can afford to knock off Venezuela, Iran or Russia. If Iranian, Russian and Venezuelan oil flowed freely, oil prices would have gone down. So he is helping his oil tycoons from Texas. He doesn’t need Venezuela’s oil. China and India are among the countries that would be affected, and Trump doesn’t care about us.

Domestically, do you think the attack is going to help Maduro?

Maduro doesn’t care about what the people feel. In fact, if he holds an election, he would lose power. People are suffering, and it is total misery — the shortage of foreign exchange. Without oil, they are dead. They need a change, but not through American warships or the White House. They need to sort it out internally.

You had big military dictatorships in Brazil, Argentina and Chile, all supported by the Americans, and they transitioned to democracy through local struggle, guerrilla warfare and political agitation. But Machado doesn’t want to do that. She just runs to Uncle Sam and the CIA and wants them to hand power to her.

Do you think Russia and China making any noises will make a difference?

I don’t think so. They haven’t invested so much in this country, and it’s not a great ally. In any case, this is the American hemisphere. They wouldn’t like to confront America here. If it is Ukraine, they would. If it is Taiwan, they would. But not in the U.S. backyard. They might offer some advice or help, but it would be insignificant.

So what do you think Trump is going to say as justification for the attack?

He can say anything he wants. The world has been living with American lies, fake news, insults and disrespect. Here is one more addition to the list, and the world will live with that. It doesn’t care, but what can anyone do?

When Trump attacked in 2018, during his earlier tenure, he squeezed Venezuela. He called for regime change and tried everything, but he didn’t go this far. At that time, he had the support of Colombia, which was run by a right-wing government. That was useful because they share a land border close to oil fields. But now Colombia would not collaborate with the United States. They have a left government. However, the Americans don’t need it now, because from ships they can send missiles and destroy the presidential palace or anything they want.

No one can do anything about it. It is a pity.

(R. Viswanathan also served as Joint Secretary (Head) of the Latin America and Caribbean Division in the Ministry of External Affairs (2004–2007) and later as Ambassador to Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay from 2007 to 2012, based in Buenos Aires.)