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Trump's national address: President declares economic triumph, but do the facts agree?

Trump portrayed his first year in office as a period of historic reversal, claiming that in “a few short months” the nation had gone “from worst to best”

President Donald Trump speaks during an address to the nation from the Diplomatic Reception Room at the White House | AP

Nearly eleven months into his second term, President Donald Trump delivered a nationally televised address from the White House a few hours ago, striking a triumphant tone as he reviewed his administration’s record so far and outlined his goals for the next three years. Speaking from the Diplomatic Reception Room, Trump departed from his customary improvisational style and instead read his speech out from a teleprompter completely, delivering his remarks at an unusually brisk pace and concluding in under 20 minutes.

The speech's central message was that Trump had rescued the United States from the brink of collapse. He asserted that when he took office the country “was ready to fail, totally fail”, but that under his leadership it had become “the hottest country anywhere in the world”. He portrayed his first year back in office as a period of historic reversal, claiming that in “a few short months” the nation had gone “from worst to best” and that his administration had delivered more positive change in Washington than any other in history.

This self-congratulatory tone, however, contrasts clearly with the broader political mood and the private advice of many within his own party. Even Republicans and White House advisers have reportedly asked Trump to be more empathetic about the cost of living. Recent election setbacks have jolted the Republicans and many of them concede that public concern about the economy remains widespread, which could translate into significant losses in the crucial 2026 midterms. Despite these warnings, Trump declined to acknowledge any economic weakness, insisting that inflation had been “stopped” and that the economy had already been fixed.

A substantial portion of the address was devoted to the economy, particularly the cost of everyday goods. Trump argued that prices were falling “very fast” and placed responsibility for previous inflation squarely on his predecessor, Joe Biden. He cited specific examples, claiming that the price of a Thanksgiving turkey had fallen by 33 per cent compared with the previous year and that egg prices were down 82 per cent since March.

Independent data, however, challenges several of these assertions. Several news outlets which fact-checked the speech found that the overall cost of a Thanksgiving meal declined by only 2 to 3 per cent, and that the comparison Trump used relied on a non-equivalent basket of largely generic products. Egg prices have indeed fallen from their peak, but they remain more than 10 per cent higher than at the start of the year, rather than showing the dramatic decline the president described. 

Consumer prices have continued to rise month by month since April, with inflation reaching 3 per cent in September.

Trump also highlighted his trade agenda, once again declaring “tariff” to be his favourite word. He credited sweeping tariffs with bringing large sums of money into the United States and compelling companies to relocate production back to American soil. He claimed to have secured a record $18 trillion in foreign investment, although analysts and figures published by his own administration place the total considerably lower, in the range of $7 trillion to $9.6 trillion. Economists have further noted that, contrary to Trump’s claims, consumers are absorbing a significant share of the costs associated with these tariffs.

To address housing costs and borrowing rates, Trump announced his plan to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair who supports cutting interest rates “by a lot”. This proposal marks a sharp break with the long-standing convention that the central bank operates independently of political pressure.

Immigration featured prominently in the speech, as Trump opened by criticising Biden’s handling of the southern border and boasting of his own crackdown. He claimed that for the past seven months, “zero illegal aliens” had been allowed into the country, describing the current border situation as the strongest in American history.

While border apprehensions have fallen to very low levels, analysts note that this trend began in the summer of 2024 under the previous administration following the introduction of stringent asylum restrictions. In his second term, Trump has placed greater emphasis on interior enforcement. The Department of Homeland Security has reported over six lakh deportations since he returned to office in January.

Trump’s rhetoric on immigration, meanwhile, remained uncompromising. He accused immigrants of “stealing” American jobs, driving up law enforcement costs and overwhelming hospital emergency rooms. He also renewed attacks on the Somali community in Minnesota, falsely claiming they had “stolen billions” and taken over the state’s economy. He further asserted that “100 per cent of all net job creation” since he took office had gone to American-born citizens. Despite these claims, opinion polls indicate that a majority of registered voters disapprove of his handling of immigration.

Health care is emerging as a major legislative flashpoint, particularly as enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies are due to expire. Without congressional action, millions of Americans could face steep increases in insurance premiums in 2026. Trump used his address to call for a fundamental shift in health care funding, proposing that the federal government provide money directly to individuals to purchase coverage rather than subsidising insurance companies. He portrayed insurers and the Democratic Party as the only losers under this model.

The legislative outlook, however, is uncertain. A Republican-backed Senate bill designed to channel funds into health savings accounts failed after divisions within the party, while the House passed a Republican bill that does not renew the subsidies. Democrats, meanwhile, are pressing for a separate measure to extend them for three years. Trump sought to pre-emptively place blame for any future premium increases on Democrats, declaring that such rises would be “their fault”. He also promised that non-binding agreements with pharmaceutical companies would lead to significant reductions in drug prices early next year.

In a populist appeal to the military, Trump announced a “Warrior Dividend” to be paid before Christmas. He promised a cheque for $1,776—a reference to the year of American independence—to 1.45 million service members, claiming the initiative would be funded by revenue from tariffs.

Throughout Trump’s speech, Biden remained a central focus. The president listed what he described as the “mess” he inherited, ranging from border security and trade agreements to cultural issues. He characterised the previous administration as one that served insiders and foreign interests at the expense of ordinary Americans.

Despite Trump’s assertion that the US has undergone a rapid and historic revival, he continues to face a sceptical public concerned about prices and a divided Congress struggling to resolve looming health care costs. His response has been to double down on tariffs, aggressive immigration enforcement and a narrative of unequivocal success, notwithstanding contradictory data and political headwinds.