US President Donald Trump gave Russia 50 days to come to the negotiating table before he imposes sanctions, an economic punishment that he hopes will slow down the Kremlin's war machine. But analysts think 50 days is more than enough time for Russian President Vladimir Putin to achieve his war goals.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, though he hailed Trump's announcement, said, "50 days, for us, is just — every day is scary". In an interview with the New York Post, Zelensky said the delay gives Putin even more time to carry out the war. "Putin has wasted President Trump’s time," he said.
Analysts agree. They believe the delay will help Russia ramp up attacks on Ukrainian strongholds in the east, where its troops are now advancing. The Kremlin is expected to launch a summer offensive using the 160,000 troops to cut off three key towns – Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka and Kupiansk.
According to Keir Giles from Chatham House, Russia will use the window to come up with a plan on the diplomatic stage. "The deadline of 50 days gives Russia plenty of time to concoct its own alternative plan," Giles said, adding that Moscow will "outmanoeuvre Washington through a diplomatic ploy". He also took a swipe at Trump, stating the US President will "accept it willingly".
John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank, told CNN that Russia could be ramping up its efforts. "Putin has sounded for a few months now quite confident about the progress of this campaign, recognising that the Ukrainians are short of manpower, (and) short of certain weapons systems," Lough said, adding that Moscow was hoping to spread the Ukrainian defence too thin. "We’re going to see a continuation of that over the next at least 50 days."
While Russia could move undeterred, many believe Trump's deadline could backfire as it would he would be forced to take steps that would harm US interests.
Trump’s deadline is likely to make his own life more difficult, limiting his future flexibility, putting the settlement he craves farther out of reach, and forcing him to take steps that harm rather than advance U.S. interests.
Dr. Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defence Priorities, believes imposing sanctions on Russia's trading partners would limit Moscow's war machine, but it would "also create political and economic complications for Washington that undermine the credibility of Trump’s threat and its effectiveness as a tool of coercion."
Moscow also has a huge fleet of shadow vessels that use black market transfers to circumvent U.S. and European economic pressure.
Kavanagh also fears that Trump’s threats may make a near-term resolution less likely as it could harden Putin’s resolve. It could also place at risk newly opened channels of communication between the United States and Russia