Leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a 15-nation bloc, on July 30 imposed sanctions on Niger and threatened the coup leaders to reinstate ousted President Mohammed Bazoum by August 6. However, the new Niger regime has not acted on the warnings and has run out of their deadline.
“The events of the last two days make it more likely that this (military) intervention may actually happen. And if they offer resistance to an ECOWAS intervention, this can turn out to be really catastrophic,” themessenger.com quoted Nathaniel Powell, Africa analyst at the Oxford Analytica geopolitical intelligence firm, as saying.
However, not all members of ECOWAS are supporting a military action against the country. Niger's neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso along with Guinea are siding with the new regime.
Algeria, also a neighbour of Niger, is against any military intervention in Niger, according to Reuters. Ennahar TV quoted President Abdelmadjid Tebboune as saying, "A military intervention could ignite the whole Sahel region and Algeria will not use force with its neighbours. Other neighbours of Niger are Chad and Libya, but they are not ECOWAS members. Chad had earlier initiated talks between junta and the West African bloc.
This means that Nigeria is the only country bordering Niger that supports military intervention, which is likely to be restricted to their 1,600-km border, according to themessenger.com.
ECOWAS defence chiefs are planning a potential military response, which they say is a last resort.
“All the elements that would go into any eventual intervention have been worked out here and [are] being refined, including the timing, including the resources needed, and including how and where and when we are going to deploy such a force,” CNN quoted ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Abdel-Fatau Musah as saying.
“We are determined to stop it, but ECOWAS is not going to tell the coup plotters when and where we are going to strike. That is an operational decision that would be taken by the heads of state who are going to be like the commanders in chief of this operation.”
ECOWAS leaders earlier called for restoring the status quo in Niger at an emergency summit in Nigeria, stating, "Such measures may include the use of force," adding that defence officials would meet immediately to that effect.
French foreign ministry said the county will support ECOWAS in its move to topple the junta in Niger.
The country’s democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum wrote in The Washington Post “as a hostage,” saying Niger was “under attack from a military junta that is trying to overthrow our democracy.”
“In Africa’s troubled Sahel region, Niger stands as the last bastion of respect for human rights amid the authoritarian movements that have overtaken some of our neighbors.While this coup attempt is a tragedy for Nigeriens, its success would have devastating consequences far beyond our borders,” he wrote in the Post.