Is a US-Iran breakthrough imminent? Key disagreements cast shadow over lasting agreement

Pakistani mediators are engaged in intensive, high-stakes diplomacy in Tehran, now into their third day of efforts to bridge the divide between the United States and Iran. Momentum towards a potential peace settlement appears to have increased after Iran indicated that the Strait of Hormuz is open, with officials from Islamabad attempting to convert the announcement and also the recent 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon into tangible concessions from Tehran. Iranian and American representatives are said to be finalising a memorandum of understanding, which is expected to outline a broad framework for a permanent agreement while establishing a structured 60-day window for continued negotiations.

A second, crucial round of talks is set to take place in Islamabad on Monday, according to CNN, with delegations expected to touch down a day earlier. The planned summit has stirred cautious optimism among diplomats that a preliminary agreement could be signed within days, though many of those involved remain wary of the complexities still to be ironed out. Amid all this, US President Donald Trump has adopted a strikingly upbeat tone, putting out a string of public statements suggesting that negotiations are very nearly done.

Speaking to multiple media outlets and posting on social media, Trump claimed that there were “no sticking points at all” and that a final deal could be reached within the “next day or two”. He also asserted that the agreement would guarantee Israel’s long-term security and that Iran had agreed to cease all support for regional proxy groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

Trump also claimed that Tehran had committed to keeping the Strait of Hormuz permanently open and had agreed to relinquish its entire stockpile of highly enriched uranium. He described the material as “nuclear dust”, arguing that much of it remains buried in underground facilities damaged during recent strikes. According to Trump, the United States would cooperate with Iran to retrieve this material using excavation equipment, proceeding at what he described as a “nice leisurely pace” and without deploying American ground troops. He also dismissed reports that Washington was considering releasing $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets, insisting that “no money is changing hands”.

Trump has linked his optimism in part to developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on Friday that the strait had been reopened to commercial shipping. He presented the move as a direct outcome of the Lebanon ceasefire, briefly raising hopes among those closely following the negotiations.

Araghchi’s bold move, however, stirred up tensions within Iran, clearly demonstrating the rift between the political leadership and hardline factions. Media outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Tasnim News Agency, criticised Araghchi’s statement as “bad and incomplete”. Authorities subsequently issued clarifications suggesting that the foreign minister had “misspoken”. State media and military officials emphasised that while civilian commercial vessels may pass through designated routes with IRGC approval, military ships remain barred from the waterway.

Iranian officials also strongly rejected several of Trump’s assertions. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused Trump of making “seven false claims in one hour” and warned against what he described as media manipulation. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei categorically denied that Iran would transfer its enriched uranium abroad, stating that it would “not be transferred anywhere under any circumstances”. Similarly, Tehran has not confirmed any commitment to ending its support for regional allies such as Hezbollah and Hamas.

The fragile diplomatic progress came under further strain after Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States would keep its naval blockade on Iranian ports in place until a final agreement is formally signed. US Central Command later confirmed that the blockade remains fully operational. The stance has provoked a sharp reaction in Tehran, with Iranian officials arguing that the continued blockade cuts against the spirit of the ceasefire and threatens to undermine the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ghalibaf issued a pointed warning, stating that should the blockade persist, the strait "will not remain open" and that vessels seeking passage would require Iranian authorisation. Reflecting the growing unease, maritime tracking data shows that several ships, among them bulk carriers transporting fertiliser, have approached the strait only to turn back amid uncertainty over whether safe passage can be guaranteed.

Despite Trump’s confident rhetoric, officials on both sides acknowledge that substantial obstacles remain. The future of Iran’s nuclear programme continues to be the most contentious issue, with Washington seeking an explicit declaration that Tehran will never pursue nuclear weapons. At the same time, technical experts caution that the safe recovery and handling of Iran’s enriched uranium would be a highly complex undertaking, likely extending well beyond the proposed 60-day negotiation period.

Financial disputes remain a considerable stumbling block. Iran, reeling from severe economic damage wrought by the conflict — estimated at $270 billion and likely to require well over a decade of reconstruction — has demanded the full lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen assets and compensation in the form of war reparations. The US is reportedly considering these demands, but it looks like a long bridge to cross at the moment. No wonder, while the potential negotiations in Islamabad could offer a pathway towards de-escalation, the sheer amount of unresolved political, technical and financial issues suggests that a comprehensive solution is unlikely anytime soon.