The ongoing escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict has triggered a major migration crisis in the Middle East, especially in Iran. The long-standing proxy wars and targeted strikes have escalated into direct confrontation, becoming a primary reason for many Iranians to flee their country. According to the UNHCR (UN High Commissioner for Refugees), nearly 32 lakh people have been displaced since the beginning of the conflict, moving to nearby countries or using these nations, including Turkey, as transit points for their escape.
For Turkey, as a traditional gateway to Europe, this geopolitical shift represents a complex crisis that impacts national security, economic stability, and social cohesion. With the closure of Iranian airspace, Turkey’s Kapikoy border crossing near eastern Van province stands as one of the few escape routes for Iranians fleeing the conflict. Most of these migrants recently arrived through their work, family, and friends connections, while some were due to ongoing airstrikes across the country.
Turkey is among the largest countries hosting refugees worldwide and is a party to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention and its 1967 protocol. Additionally, it implemented legislative and institutional reforms in April 2013, which were approved by the parliament and took effect on 11 April 2014. This historic effort aimed to create an effective national asylum system aligned with international refugee law, with the Presidency of Migration Management (PMM) serving as the primary authority for policies on all foreigners in the country. To this day, the law remains a key pillar of Turkey’s national asylum system.
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According to the latest reports from the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and PMM, Turkey hosts more than 36 lakh foreigners, of whom 25 lakhs require international protection. The UNHCR reports that during the past year, there were 1,66,899 refugees and asylum-seekers in Turkey, with the majority coming from Iraq (78,365; 47%), Afghanistan (68,278; 41%), Iran (12,211; 7%), Ukraine (2,399; 2%), and others (5,646; 3%).
Although the war has caused many to flee the country, Iran was already experiencing structural decline. By late 2025, food inflation had exceeded 70 per cent, and the national currency reached an all-time low. Additionally, unlike earlier waves of migration driven by lower-income groups, the current migration mainly involves educated individuals, including doctors, engineers, and tech workers.
Meanwhile, Turkey's response to a potential influx of Iranians is heavily influenced by its experience with the ongoing Syrian refugee crisis. This situation has fostered resentment among the Turkish public and political leaders. Ultimately, the persistent migration crisis prompted the government to change its open-door policy to one focused on containment, increased security measures, and regional stability.
In early 2026, Turkey finished constructing 380 kilometres of concrete wall along its 560-kilometer border with Iran. Additionally, this border is protected by specialised gendarmerie units called Border Eagles, supported by advanced surveillance systems, including 203 optical towers, 43 observation posts, and thermal motion sensors. Meanwhile, Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi outlined a three-tier contingency plan to handle the Iranian crisis: coordinating with Iranian local authorities for interception, establishing a humanitarian buffer zone to prevent migrants from reaching the border, creating safe zones on the Iranian side, or allowing limited migrants to enter deportation centres instead of metropolitan hubs.
This situation creates a stark paradox for Turkey; on one hand, Ankara aims to maintain its role as a symbol of humanitarian aid and a legal authority on asylum issues, as established by its 2013 reforms, and on the other hand, recent regional developments have compelled it to modify this stance by bolstering the border. By deploying advanced surveillance technology and constructing physical barriers, Ankara prioritises immediate domestic stability over long-term humanitarian commitments. Ultimately, any collapse of the Iranian regime could open a Pandora's box, triggering regional humanitarian crises with broader consequences that could significantly affect Turkey’s goals.
The author is a doctoral candidate at the Centre for West Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.