Iran on Friday rattled the US and the UK by firing two Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs) at Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.-U.K. military base in the middle of the Indian Ocean, marking the first use of the IRBMs into a region far beyond the Middle East. This also hints that Iran possesses in its stockpile missiles that can go beyond 2,000 kms, which was believed to be the range of its most advanced weapon.
The missiles, however, did not hit the targets. While one failed in flight, the next was intercepted by an SM-3 interceptor fired from a US warship, the Wall Street Journal quoted two unnamed sources.
The attack happened on Friday morning, just before the UK government announced on Friday that it would allow the US to use some of its bases to target Iranian sites being used to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
The use of IRBM at Diego Garcia has stoked fears that Western Europe could now be within the range of Iran’s missile arsenal, though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had earlier claimed that Iran had deliberately limited the range of its missiles to 2,000 kilometres, with Diego Garcia being at twice that range. This statement was intended to counter American claims that Iran was developing intercontinental missiles, which could also hit the US mainland.
However, US officials have long alleged Iran’s space program could allow it to build intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The statement from Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency on Saturday also seems to confirm the speculations, after it stated that the attempted strike was a “significant step … that shows that the range of Iran’s missiles is beyond what the enemy previously imagined.”
Unknown Iranian missile
Ballistic missiles are classified primarily by range: short-range missiles (SRBMs) that reach up to 1,000 km, medium-range missiles (MRBMs) between 1,000 and 3,000 km, and intermediate-range missiles (IRBMs) between 3,000 and 5,500 km. Above that are intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which have ranges exceeding 5,500 km. Until last night's launch, Iran's known arsenal consisted mainly of MRBMs. The Diego Garcia launch, if it did reach a range of about 4,000 km, places Iran in the IRBM category for the first time - one step below intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The identity of the missile fired at Diego Garcia has not yet been officially confirmed, but Israeli Defence Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir described it this evening as a "two-stage ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 kilometres."
Many believe this description rules out the Khorramshahr, the most advanced in Iran's ballistic arsenal, whose official range is 2,000 kilometres, as it is a single-stage missile that does not fit the military description.
According to Tal Inbar, a missile expert who consults for Israeli defence companies, Khorramshahr can easily cross 3,000 kilometres. "It's not just about putting less weight on the missile and hoping for the best. There are challenges in control, guidance and steering," he told Israel Hayom, adding that the missile gains such high speed when its body penetrates the atmosphere and it has to withstand enormous loads, heat and other things. It is very difficult to build a body that can withstand these extreme conditions." Reaching 4,000 km, he added, "is something very challenging."
Another possibility raised by experts is that Iran is using technology developed as part of its space program to extend the range of military missiles. Inbar points to the Revolutionary Guards’ Qam-100 satellite launcher as the main candidate. This also fits the fact that the missile fired at Diego Garcia was a multi-stage missile, which fits Zamir’s description of it as a two-stage one.
According to Inbar, the Qam-100 is theoretically capable of reaching 4,000 km or even a little more, but so far it has not been tested as a missile carrying a warhead.
A range of 4,000 km puts European capitals such as Berlin, Rome, Vienna and even London on the map, which is about the same distance from Iran as Diego Garcia. However, Inbar says this was an attempted Iranian threat, rather than a real intention.
Geopolitical experts believe Iran’s attempts have several implications. For Trump and the US, it proves that Iran is much more advanced in developing ballistic missiles than it declares, and may even be approaching the ability to strike the territory. For the rest of the countries, the firing may allow for increased pressure on European countries to join the effort to open the Strait of Hormuz, since the firing at sovereign European territory positions Iran as a direct threat to Europe.