Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire plan, backed by the United Nations, is nearing completion and anticipates progress to the second phase soon. The first phase, which began on October 10, brought a halt to fighting, along with a major exchange of people in custody and the remains of dead people. Hamas released the last 20 living Israeli hostages and returned most of the bodies of those who had been killed. In return, Israel released about 2,000 Palestinian detainees. Israel is expected to fully withdraw from areas covered by the first phase once Hamas returns the remains of the final Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili, a 24-year-old police officer.
Despite these steps, the progress so far has only resulted in a very fragile halt in violence. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani called the current situation a pause rather than a true ceasefire. Israeli forces have pulled back to a designated line, but they still control 58 per cent of the Gaza Strip.
The Israeli military now refers to this line as the Yellow Line. It serves as a new internal boundary and a forward defensive position.
Netanyahu has warned that the second phase will be harder than the first. According to him, the main aim will be the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarisation of Gaza. A third phase is planned to focus on the long-term task of reducing extremism in the territory. Phase Two also includes the deployment of an International Stabilisation Force, which would work with a temporary Palestinian administration and support the start of reconstruction work. People involved in the talks say progress has slowed. They say that there are no firm deadlines, and important details about the role and structure of the multinational security force still need to be agreed.
The United States continues to play a central role in advancing the process. The American peace plan is written into UN Security Council resolution 2803. It sets out the creation of an international peace board that would be chaired by President Donald Trump. This board would oversee the Palestinian committee and the ISF. Netanyahu will meet Trump later this month to discuss how to end Hamas rule and ensure the aims of the second phase can be met. International mediators led by the United States are working hard to push the parties towards Phase Two. Germany is also helping by sending officers and diplomats to a United States-led coordination centre based in southern Israel.
The most difficult issue remains the order in which disarmament should take place. Israel insists it will not leave Gaza until Hamas has given up its weapons. Netanyahu has said that Israel must be certain that Hamas will keep its promise to disarm and that Gaza will no longer pose a military threat.
Regional partners have raised concerns about this approach. Turkey and Egypt in particular, say disarmament should not be the starting point for the ISF. The Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has said clearly that disarming Hamas cannot be the first step. He believes the initial aim should be to separate Palestinians from Israelis in order to stabilise the situation. He has called for a practical approach that follows the right order. His view is shared by the Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Abdelatty wants the ISF to stand along the Yellow Line as a monitoring force rather than as a force tasked with imposing peace. Qatari officials have also questioned the timing of disarmament. They have argued that taking weapons away from one group without improving the wider security situation could lead to new armed groups appearing. Hamas itself has said that it is willing to accept UN forces to monitor borders and the ceasefire, but will not accept any international mission that seeks to remove its weapons.
Beyond Gaza, the United States is working on a broader plan to improve relations between Israel and Arab states. A key part of this plan is an attempt to organise a meeting between Netanyahu and the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sissi. Relations between the two leaders have been strained, and Sissi has avoided speaking to Netanyahu during the conflict. Egypt has always played an important mediator role between Israel and Hamas. To make the meeting possible, Israel is expected to offer concessions. One option is a new strategic gas deal with Egypt. American officials say this could create economic ties that strengthen peace and help prevent future conflict. If this effort is successful, the United States hopes to use the same approach to reduce tensions in other parts of the region and build formal ties with Syria, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. The United States believes that Israel must show it has a positive role in the region beyond acting as a counter to Iran.
The move into the second phase will depend on finding a balance between Israel’s demand for rapid disarmament and the view held by Turkey, Egypt and others that stability and separation must come first. The United States and its partners are trying to guide the process while encouraging broader regional cooperation. Their aim is to turn the present pause into a lasting peace.
