The Islamic Republic of Iran appears to be in a weak situation, similar to how the Soviet Union was before it collapsed. US experts Norman Roule and Mark Dubowitz believe that Iran, which is facing a slew of economic and military failures, isn’t far from collapse.
Roule, a former CIA official in charge of the Iran file, told a seminar organised by Iran International that there were people within the regime who would admit in their private meetings that they are “leading a regime on the verge of collapse.”
“They say that we are not far from the final stage of the Soviet Union's life, and that the death of the current leader does not mean the end of the regime, but rather they are looking for ways to control the situation and extend its life," Roule said.
Mark Dubowitz, the executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, added that that similarity does not mean identity: "Iran is not the Soviet Union, and 2025 is not 1989, but history does not repeat itself, it echoes,” he added.
He explained that Tehran's limited social changes are similar to Gorbachev's attempts to save the Soviet Union through reforms that ended in its collapse.
After the Israeli and the US attack left it weakened and bereft of its top layer of IRGC commanders and nuclear programme experts, Iran attempted to ease the strict enforcement of laws, including one on hijab.
"What we are witnessing is similar to the late Soviet 1980s... Who in 1988 would have predicted a major revolution in the Soviet Union? The regime in Iran is facing an unavoidable state of disintegration," Roule said.
While Dubowitz noted that Israel now considered regime change in Tehran a "central pillar" of its strategy, especially after the October 7 attacks, Roule thinks it wouldn’t be any external power that would bring in the radical change. “The role of the United States should be limited to supporting the Iranian people in achieving change from within in a way that serves their needs,” the former CIA official said.
The Iranian regime accuses the United States and Israel of seeking to overthrow it and says its survival is due to popular support and "resistance against aggression". Pro-regime people are putting up billboards in Tehran’s Revolution Square depicting Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi inside the crown of the Statue of Liberty, in reference to “the fate of dictators who are victims of American intervention”.
However, the experts believe the downfall of tyrants like Saddam and Gaddafi "was not due to a single American strike," just as it was not possible to topple the Iranian regime through a limited operation against several nuclear sites.
Dubowitz noted that the term “regime change” is not favored in Washington because of the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, but pointed out that the current debate revolves around “Reagan’s strategy”: increasing support for the Iranian opposition and imposing maximum pressure on the regime.