Hamas is facing growing pressure from all corners to sign on to President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza. A combination of direct military threats, diplomatic isolation and the catastrophic humanitarian crisis affecting the territory after nearly two years of sustained conflict have put Hamas clearly on the backfoot.
A central element of this pressure tactic is the strict timeline imposed by Trump; he has given Hamas only “three or four days” to respond to the proposal, making it clear that refusal would result in further military escalation. Trump warned that failure to accept the deal would lead to a “very sad end”, and that the individuals required to sign the agreement “will pay in hell” if they do not. The terms are framed as non-negotiable, with the United States granting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government what Trump described as a “full green light” to continue military operations in Gaza should Hamas reject the deal. Netanyahu has echoed this sentiment, stating that Israel will “finish the job by itself” if necessary. Trump has publicly backed this position, expressing confidence that Israel could “do it pretty easily” if left to act unilaterally.
These military threats come at a time when Hamas’s capabilities have been significantly degraded. It has lost many of its senior leaders and key tacticians and many others are on the run. According to multiple estimates, the group has also lost close to 25,000 fighters, crippling its capabilities. The weakening of its regional patrons like Iran and close allies like Hezbollah have further complicated the situation for Hamas. With dwindling resources and few options left, the group may find it hard to withstand American pressure.
Hamas also seems to be caught off balance by the stand adopted by nations that have historically supported it. Key Muslim-majority countries like Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have urged Hamas to accept the Trump deal. The Palestinian Authority has also welcomed the plan and has asked Hamas to disarm and not stand in the way of peace. No wonder Netanyahu was quick to claim that Israel has “turned the tables and isolated Hamas”, a statement that reflects the current geopolitical climate surrounding the conflict.
Leading mediators, including Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani and Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad, have personally presented the deal to Hamas’s leadership. Al-Thani reportedly told Hamas officials that this was “the best deal he was able to get for them” and warned that it “won’t get much better”. This message appears to reflect a shared international view that this might be the final opportunity for Hamas to secure a negotiated end to hostilities.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza provides perhaps the most urgent reason for Hamas to consider the deal. The territory is in shambles after waves of air strikes and ground invasions. Gaza is also witnessing one of the worst humanitarian crises in history. Many Gazans are reportedly supportive of the plan, if only because it promises an end to the bloodshed. Residents have described their homeland as “virtually wiped out” and fear that continuing the conflict will destroy what little remains. Many feel desperate, exhausted and hopeless, and believe the fighting must stop immediately, even if the proposed plan is seen to favour Israeli interests.
While Hamas is said to be reviewing the proposal “responsibly” and “in good faith”, key issues remain unresolved. The requirement to disarm and relinquish control of Gaza is a particular sticking point, with Hamas officials expressing concern that such measures would amount to a new form of occupation. Nonetheless, the combined weight of military threats, diplomatic isolation and humanitarian catastrophe means the pressure on Hamas to accept the deal has never been greater.