The latest diplomatic push to disarm Hezbollah marks a critical turning point in the uneasy relationship between Israel and Lebanon, with the United States working at the centre of the effort. Following visits by American envoys Thomas Barrack and Morgan Ortagus, Beirut has set itself the goal of disarming Hezbollah by the end of this year.
A risky bet
Lebanon’s cabinet, led by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, has approved a plan that promises to restore the state’s monopoly over force. Officials describe the move as a chance to reclaim sovereignty and strengthen institutions free from the shadow of non-state militias. The roadmap envisions a phased handover of weapons by armed groups.
There have already been tentative signs of progress. Some members of the group Fatah in the Burj al-Barajneh refugee camp have handed over arms, though several Palestinian factions remain hostile to disarmament. The task will be harder with Hezbollah, whose arsenal and political influence dwarf those of any other group in the country.
Lebanon also faces immense financial pressures. International support for post-war reconstruction, after more than $11 billion in damages, is expected to depend heavily on Hezbollah being disarmed.
Israel’s conditional welcome
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cautiously welcomed the Lebanese decision, calling it an important step. He has promised a gradual reduction of Israeli army presence in southern Lebanon Hezbollah is disarmed and the Lebanese army can take charge. Israel wants a US-led security framework to oversee the process.
Yet Israel’s demands go further. It insists that destroyed border villages remain uninhabited and be converted into an industrial buffer zone. Despite a ceasefire brokered last November, Israel continues to hold positions in southern Lebanon and to carry out strikes against what it describes as Hezbollah targets. Israeli officials argue that Hezbollah is trying to rebuild its military network and point to the displacement of tens of thousands of northern Israeli residents during the war as justification for keeping pressure on the group. Since the ceasefire, the Israeli military says it has conducted more than 500 airstrikes that killed at least 230 Hezbollah operatives.
Hezbollah’s defiance
For Hezbollah, the decision by the Lebanese government is unacceptable. The group, which has held on to its weapons since the civil war, insists that its arsenal is essential for defending Lebanon against Israel. Its leader Naim Kassem has vowed to resist disarmament, declaring that laying down arms would be like giving up the group’s very soul. Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, have denounced the government’s plan and called for mass protests.
The group also disputes the interpretation of the ceasefire.
Hezbollah claims it has complied by withdrawing fighters and weapons from the area south of the Litani River, while Israel and the United States argue that the agreement requires the group’s disarmament across all of Lebanon. Before even considering talks on surrendering weapons, Hezbollah has demanded that Israel fully withdraw from Lebanese territory, end its strikes, release prisoners and support reconstruction.
The weight of US diplomacy
At the heart of this effort is US envoy Thomas Barrack, who is attempting to mediate not only between Israel and Lebanon but also with Syria in pursuit of a wider security arrangement. He has pressed Israel to limit its strikes and to prepare for a withdrawal from the remaining outposts in Lebanon, arguing that Beirut has already taken a significant step by committing to disarm Hezbollah. American officials have warned Israel that continued military action could undermine Lebanese efforts and risk triggering another round of conflict.
Resistance and uncertainty
Israel’s northern communities like Kiryat Shmona have voiced sharp opposition to any reduction of the military presence across the border. They call the move premature and say that they could face renewed attacks. The Hamas-led attack of October 2023 still shapes their fears that an Israeli withdrawal could invite more attacks. In the absence of proper security guarantees, many of them are still not prepared to return to their homes along the border.
While Lebanon views disarmament as an opportunity to regain sovereignty and secure aid, for Israel, it offers security on its northern border. Hezbollah, however, could emerge as a loser since the move could possibly erase its identity as a resistance movement against Israel.