As the Middle East braces for a potential conflict between Israel and Iran, a strategist and a game-theory expert has predicted the possible scenarios that could determine how the tensions could pan out.
Israeli analyst Kfir Tshuva said the relations between Israel and Iran are reminiscent of the classic "Chicken Game" in Game Theory. "Two players are racing towards each other, with neither of them wanting to be the one to retreat first - but both know that if neither side steps back, the collision will be devastating," Tshuva told Israeli newspaper Maariv.
"In this game, the real victory is to prevent the crash - not to lead to it. The same is true in the dynamics between Israel and Iran: Israel cannot allow Iran to reach the nuclear threshold, while Iran cannot afford to appear to be folding, for fear of losing prestige and regional influence," he added.
He thinks the current scenario is reminiscent of the India-Pakistan conflict that followed the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in 2025. " India attacked deep inside Pakistan, but the sides were careful not to be drawn into an all-out war. There was an exchange of blows - but after a few short rounds, both sides stopped, while maintaining control over the pace of the confrontation. This was an important lesson in the strategy of mutual restraint - and is also very relevant to the Israeli-Iranian scenario," he added.
He said Israel-Iran are in the "repeated game in a game theory" where both sides are not in a single conflict but repeated one. "The sides already know what is expected to happen: attack - response - containment. We saw this pattern after the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, the assassination of Haniyeh, and the reciprocal attacks. Each side is looking to exert force - but without breaking the boundaries of the field. This is strategic restraint, not necessarily out of weakness, but out of the understanding that the next stage may be uncontrollable," Kfir Tshuva added.
But, what would Israel's game plan look like? According to Tshuva, even if Israel chooses to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, it will not harm civilian infrastructure or the regime itself which could ignite an uncontrollable chain reaction.
What would an Israeli attack scenario look like, and what response would come from the Iranian side? Tshuva said according to the game theory model, there is a wide range of actions that allow for punishment without breaching the boundaries of the conflict. “Even if Israel chooses to carry out a targeted attack on nuclear facilities in Iran,” he noted, “it will try not to harm civilian infrastructure or the regime itself - a move that could be interpreted as an existential threat and ignite an uncontrollable chain reaction.
As for Iran, it will be cautious as it doesn't not yet actually possess a nuclear bomb. "Unlike Pakistan, which already has nuclear weapons and is an actual deterrent player, Iran is still in the development stage - and therefore its deterrence is limited. It knows that any escalation into direct conflict with Israel could lead to American intervention, perhaps even an operation aimed at collapsing the regime. Therefore, despite the aggressive rhetoric, it is expected to seek ways to respond without breaking the boundaries of the game," he said.