The exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections in Kerala will be released on Wednesday. As the state awaits results on May 4, THE WEEK analyses how exit polls fared in predicting outcomes in 2011, 2016 and 2021.
2011
In 2011, Kerala witnessed a classic bipolar contest between the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). The April 13 election produced one of the closest results in the state’s history, with the UDF securing a wafer-thin majority—72 seats to the LDF’s 68 (out of 140).
Six out of seven post-election surveys predicted a UDF victory. Surveys by Asianet–C Fore, Headlines Today–ORG Marg, News 24–Today’s Chanakya, Jaihind TV–Saarc, CVB News–C Voter and Star News forecast a clear majority for the UDF. In contrast, the Manorama News–The Week–CNN-IBN–CSDS survey projected a tight contest, suggesting both fronts had a chance at a simple majority. While it gave a slight edge to the LDF, it also allowed for a narrow UDF win.
The Asianet–C Fore survey projected 72–82 seats for the UDF and 58–68 for the LDF, and indicated the BJP could win up to two seats. In reality, the BJP failed to open its account, despite improving its vote share.
Most other surveys—including Headlines Today–ORG Marg, News 24–Today’s Chanakya, Jaihind TV–Saarc, CVB News–C Voter and Star News—predicted 80-plus seats for the UDF.
V.S. Achuthanandan, chief minister from 2006 to 2011, emerged as the most preferred CM candidate in both the Asianet survey (40%) and the Manorama News–The Week–CNN-IBN–CSDS survey (38%). Oommen Chandy led in the Today’s Chanakya survey (36%).
With the UDF eventually winning 72 seats, Oommen Chandy became chief minister.
2016
In 2016, Kerala witnessed a strong anti-incumbency wave against the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) government led by Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, resulting in a decisive victory for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), which won 91 seats.
Most exit polls had predicted an LDF victory with a clear majority. The India Today–Axis–Mathrubhumi survey projected 88–101 seats for the LDF and 38–41 for the UDF. It also noted that in constituencies such as Kazhakkoottam, Thiruvananthapuram and Nemom, the primary contest would be between the LDF and the BJP.
The BJP opened its account in Kerala for the first time in 2016 by winning the Nemom seat.
The only major outlier was the News Nation exit poll, which predicted that the UDF would win more seats than the LDF—projecting 70 seats for the UDF and 69 for the LDF.
2021
In 2021, the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF secured a historic victory—the first time since 1977 that an incumbent government in Kerala was re-elected.
All major exit polls had predicted an LDF win, though the projected margins varied significantly. The India Today–Axis My India survey forecast a landslide, projecting 104–120 seats for the LDF and 20–36 for the UDF. It also estimated that the BJP-led NDA would win just 0–2 seats.
Meanwhile, the Times Now/ABP–C Voter and Manorama News–VMR surveys offered more conservative projections, though they still gave the LDF an edge. The Manorama News–VMR exit poll projected 68–78 seats for the LDF, 59–70 for the UDF, and 1–2 for the NDA.
In the final results, however, the LDF outperformed these conservative projections, winning 99 seats. The UDF was reduced to 41 seats, while the BJP failed to win any.
Notably, exit polls in the last three elections were generally directionally accurate in predicting the winner, though most failed to accurately estimate the scale of the victory.