Poll fervour has peaked in Tamil Nadu, which braces for second-phase voting on Wednesday. Though it would take a week for the mandate to become clear, speculations are that the DMK is also thinking about the dates for swearing-in and the list of ministers for its new Cabinet. Not just the ruling party, even the AIADMK camp is upbeat, according to reports.
However, political analysts believe that if the results don’t go in favour of the AIADMK, it could threaten Edappadi Palaniswamy’s standing as the party chief.
Ever since he took over as the party chief, Edappadi Palaniswami has been facing consecutive defeats in 11 elections, including local body elections and by-elections. For the same reason, the 2026 election is considered important for Palaniswami. If the party doesn’t fare well in this election, it will be very difficult for him to retain his post as General Secretary.
There are already enough and more factors that could derail Palaniswamy’s hopes.
First, the allies of the party, who are unlikely to perform well. Anbumani-led Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) has a chance of winning only two seats out of 18 seats allotted to it. Anbumani, who split the party after a fall out with his father Ramadoss, will not have an easy ride as the latter is dissatisfied with the fact that his son ditched him. Ramadoss's letter against Anbumani, saying that his blood has betrayed him, has created a huge stir. This has raised the question of whether the Vanniyar votes will completely go to the AIADMK-BJP alliance.
G K Vasan’s Tamil Manila Congress is unlikely to win any seats out of the five allotted to it.
Then the opposition, including V K Sasikala’s newly-formed All India Puratchi Thalaivar Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam. Though political commentators say that Sasikala is not a strong political force today, she still could hinder the prospects of AIADMK, especially since Palaniswamy is yet to get the acceptance of the Mukulathor community, considered the backbone of the AIADMK.
The expulsion of O. Panneerselvam and Sasikala from the AIADMK has caused discontent among a section of the Mukulathor community. Sasikala has exploited that discontent by projecting the image of "we are the true heirs of the AIADMK." As a result, the votes of the Mukulathor community in the southern districts have been scattered and have turned in favour of Sasikala's candidates, according to local media reports.
Political pundits believe that, irrespective of whether Sasikala's new party wins or not, it has the power to divide AIADMK votes. Sasikala's influence in the Delta and Southern districts is likely to significantly reduce the AIADMK's total number of seats.
His sour equation with BJP leader Annamalai is also a factor. While Edappadi Palaniswami expects the BJP vote bank to favour him, reports hint that the supporters of Annamalai are very upset with him. Edappadi Palaniswami's main demand to rejoin the NDA was that Annamalai should be removed from the post of party leader. Annamalai was soon replaced by Nayinar Nagendran, and the former’s supporters have since been dissatisfied with the leadership. This means that Edappadi Palaniswami is unlikely to get the support of the youth who support Annamalai.
The entry of Vijay into politics could eventually harm AIADMK. Political pundits believe the lack of anti-incumenbency mean that VIjay’s TVK is unlikely to eat into DMK’s votes but rather could take the AIADMK support base.