With Assam having the second-largest percentage of Muslim population in the country (after Jammu and Kashmir) at 34 per cent, Congress’s categorical decision to keep its distance from the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) appears complex but calculated. The party believes that breaking with the Muslim-centric outfit could help it broaden its appeal among anti-incumbency voters, anti-BJP voters, and sections uncomfortable with backing a party identified exclusively with one community.
An internal Congress assessment suggests that AIUDF, which won 16 seats in the 2021 Assembly elections, has steadily lost credibility among Muslim voters. Many within the community believe party chief Badruddin Ajmal has failed to translate Muslim numerical strength into representing Muslims proportionately. The post-delimitation restructuring of Assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies has further weakened AIUDF’s relevance.
Before delimitation, around 30 of Assam’s 126 Assembly seats were Muslim-dominated, with another 10 constituencies where Muslim voters played a decisive role. That arithmetic has now changed. At present, only 23 Assembly seats are considered overwhelmingly Muslim-dominated, with just half a dozen others where Muslim voters are decisive.
“Earlier, Muslim voters were spread across more seats, and even a small shift in votes could alter outcomes. AIUDF played a key role in consolidating those votes,” said a political analyst. “Now the concentration is higher, and Congress believes it has sufficient appeal to win these seats on its own, especially as AIUDF’s influence declines.”
This message became clear during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In Dhubri, Congress candidate Rakibul Hussain secured 1,471,885 votes, nearly 60 per cent of the total, defeating AIUDF chief Ajmal by a margin of over 40 per cent, a result that shook AIUDF’s claim over the Muslim vote.
Congress leaders also argue that an alliance with a Muslim-centric party risks polarising the electorate, potentially alienating anti-BJP voters who are equally opposed to identity-based politics. Such voters, they fear, could stay away from Congress in the event of a formal tie-up with AIUDF.
However, some analysts caution that Congress’s weak organisational structure in Assam and its weak alliance partners as compared to the BJP's could still limit its ability to convert vote share into seats, especially in a tightly contested electoral landscape. The BJP has Asom Gana Parishad and Bodo People's Front (BPF) as its alliance partners, which are seen to have a strong support base of their own.
Notably, the Congress will be contesting the upcoming assembly election without two of its major alliance partners, AIUDF and BPF (the latter having shifted allegiance to the BJP since the last elections), with which it had contested the 2021 assembly elections in which the two alliance partners had collectively gathered the vote share of about 13 per cent.
“The Congress this time will be banking on Muslim votes. If it is able to secure more than 30 out of around 35 Muslim percentage votes, it can boost its prospects in several constituencies, added with other votes,” a political analyst said.
Besides, the Congress in Assam has kept its vote chori allegations alive. Addressing the media at Rajiv Bhavan on Thursday, Dhubri Lok Sabha MP Rakibul Hussain and former Rajya Sabha MP Ripun Bora accused the BJP of colluding with the Election Commission of India to manipulate voter lists, drawing parallels with alleged electoral irregularities in Haryana, Maharashtra and Karnataka.
The leaders expressed alarm over attempts to tilt the odds in favour of the ruling BJP ahead of the polls while alleging inclusion of “temporary voters” from other states in the draft electoral rolls, published after a Special Revision (SR) of the voter lists, calling it a “vote chori” attempt.
