Even as the exit polls were pouring in soon after the second phase of the Bihar polls were completed on Tuesday, predicting that the victory of the NDA was certain, the Congress had remained optimistic.
The party argued that the exit polls have been proven wrong before. The most recent case being Haryana, where exit polls predicted that there would be a Congress wave, but it was the BJP that ultimately triumphed.
The Congress and many in the Mahagathbandhan alliance remained confident despite most of the exit polls forecasting that they didn't really stand a chance. Senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh claimed that the Bihar assembly elections were a close contest and added that he does not trust exit polls.
Many other senior leaders, including Congress national president Mallikarjun Kharge, rubbished the exit polls, saying these have been proven wrong in the past.
"All the exit polls are showing a lead for the NDA. They indicate that there isn’t much support for the Mahagathbandhan. Similarly, in Haryana, exit polls had shown that Congress would win, but the results turned out the opposite, and the BJP came to power, Kharge had said.
What did the exit polls say?
Exit poll projections are made by election survey agencies based on interviews of voters as they come out after casting their votes. These may vary widely from the actual results.
Multiple exit polls, including Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, Matrize, Dainik Bhaskar, People’s Insight, People’s Pulse, JVC, Polstrat, Chanakya Strategies and P-Marq, projected a clear lead for the NDA over the Mahagathbandhan.
Axis My India predicted 121–141 seats for the NDA and 98–118 for the Mahagathbandhan, with the RJD emerging as the single-largest party (67–76 seats).
Today's Chanakya forecast 160 seats (plus-minus margin of error of 12 seats) for the BJP-led alliance and 77 (plus-minus margin of error of 12 seats) for the Mahagathbandhan. Matrize predicted 147–167 seats for the NDA and 70–90 for the Mahagathbandhan, while Dainik Bhaskar estimated 145–160 for the NDA and 73–91 for its rival.
People’s Insight projected 133–148 for the NDA and 87–102 for the Mahagathbandhan; People’s Pulse gave them 133–159 and 75–101 respectively. JVC suggested 135–150 for the NDA and 88–103 for the Mahagathbandhan. Polstrat also predicted 133–148 for the NDA and 87–102 for the opposition. Chanakya Strategies pegged the NDA at 130–138 and the Mahagathbandhan at 100–108, while P-Marq projected 142–162 and 80–98 respectively.
Exit polls proven wrong?
However, nobody really could predict what was coming. When the results stared coming in, what the Congress had been claiming came true—that exit polls are never really accurate, and they have been proven wrong.
One may argue that the Congress has been vindicated, as if the leads hold, the NDA alliance is heading for a landslide victory with over 200 seats, a figure that no exit polls predicted.
