Nitish Kumar vs Tejashwi Yadav: Will exit polls hold? Decoding the 3 possible Bihar election result day surprises

The highest-ever voting percentage in Bihar since the first general elections in 1951 has energised all political camps. While most exit polls have projected a clear win for the Bharatiya Janata Party–Janata Dal (United)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Mahagathbandhan (Grand alliance) maintains that this vote is for change. The ruling camp is visibly buoyant, while the Opposition insists that exit polls often go wrong, as they did in Haryana and Madhya Pradesh.

The Bihar elections concluded with a historic voter turnout of 66.91 per cent. Turnout among male voters stood at 62.8 per cent, while female participation reached an unprecedented 71.6 per cent. This indicates increased voter awareness following the controversial SIR exercise and the agitation against it. Concerned citizens turned out in large numbers to use their hard-earned voting rights.

The nearly 9 per cent higher turnout among women suggests that political parties successfully drew them out with the promise of better welfare schemes. Since 2010, women voters in Bihar have consistently voted in higher numbers than men, partly reflecting male migration for work.

Analysts have argued that women voters have largely supported Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, whose government has carefully cultivated them over the years, most recently by transferring Rs 10,000 to the accounts of over one crore women to help them start small businesses.

Tejashwi Yadav, on the other hand, promised one government job for every family, a major assurance in a state struggling with unemployment. The combination of these two factors, alongside caste arithmetic and the presence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj campaign, may influence the final outcome.

We look at the three broad scenarios ahead of the November 14 counting.

NDA wins handsomely

If the exit polls hold true, and the NDA secures a comfortable majority, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will see his leadership reaffirmed. The NDA contested the election under his leadership, and if the JD(U) improves its tally from last time, Nitish Kumar is likely to continue as chief minister. However, if the JD(U)’s numbers fall and the BJP and its allies secure a comfortable majority, there could be pressure on Nitish to step aside.

Speculation is rife that Bihar could see a repeat of the Maharashtra example, where the BJP eventually installed its own chief minister despite contesting under the leadership of an ally. A decisive NDA victory would strengthen the BJP’s organisational base in Bihar and reinforce the alliance’s stability at the Centre, where JD(U) MPs already support the BJP government.

For the JD(U), a positive result would restore political relevance and stability after internal challenges. It may also give the alliance room to plan a leadership transition in the future, as Nitish Kumar’s long-term role remains uncertain.

Hung house 

A hung assembly would once again push Bihar into a phase of political negotiation. In such a scenario, the BJP might seek support from smaller parties, given its presence in power at both the state and central levels, making it an attractive partner for those seeking cabinet positions.

The RJD could look to exploit any internal friction within the NDA. An open offer to Nitish Kumar to rejoin hands, should he find himself isolated within the alliance, has been circulating since before polling began. Players like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, and independents could become crucial in government formation. However, given the high voter turnout, many pollsters still predict a clear mandate.

Mahagathbandhan upset

If the Mahagathbandhan manages to overturn exit poll predictions, it would mark a major political shift. Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign, focused on jobs, youth, and anti-incumbency, would be credited for reshaping the contest. A victory for the Mahagathbandhan would also have wider national implications by demonstrating that strong regional leaders and local issues can still challenge the BJP’s dominance in northern India. Also, the win could mean Rahul Gandhi’s pitch against the vote theft has delivered on the ground.

If the Mahagathbandhan wins and Tejashwi Yadav becomes chief minister, it would signify the rise of a new OBC leader in the Hindi heartland and confirm his emergence from his father’s shadow. After the exit polls, Tejashwi claimed that 72 lakh more votes than in the previous election were a clear indicator of change, saying exit polls often prove wrong.

Regardless of the outcome, Bihar’s election has once again highlighted the state’s high voter engagement and competitive political landscape. With record turnout and a close contest in several key constituencies, the result will be closely watched not only for its impact on state politics but also for the signal it sends to national parties ahead of the next electoral cycle as polls are due in states like Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry next year.