OPINION: Will shifting voter dynamics chart a new political future for Bihar?

As Bihar prepares for its assembly elections on November 6 and 11, with results due on November 14, the implications reach well beyond the state’s boundaries. This vote is more than a clash of political groups as it serves as a judgement on whether Bihar can move past its deep-rooted divisions based on social identity and build a system focused on shared goals, fairness, and steady progress. Holding 40 seats in Parliament, Bihar’s results could reshape alliances across the country and set the tone for the 2029 general elections.

Social identity in politics: From progress to stumbling block

Social identity, particularly caste, continues to shape Bihar’s political landscape. It once drove positive change by giving voice to marginalised groups, but now it often holds back broader development. The caste survey released in 2023 by the government under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar marked a step forward in openness. It showed that Extremely Backward Classes make up 36 per cent of the population, Other Backward Classes 27 per cent, Scheduled Castes about 20 per cent, and forward castes around 16 per cent. This data fuelled calls for increased reservations, leading to a law that boosted quotas in jobs and education to 65 per cent. However, the Supreme Court is still reviewing its legality after a high court ruling against it, which has only heightened tensions instead of easing them.

The ruling National Democratic Alliance, combining Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party, has mastered the art of balancing these social groups. JD(U) draws support from communities like Kurmis and Koeris, who form about 8 to 10 per cent of voters, while the BJP appeals to forward castes. They also include partners representing Scheduled Castes and even more disadvantaged subgroups. In the 2020 elections, this mix helped them secure 43 per cent of the votes by uniting non-dominant backward groups who felt overlooked by other parties.

On the other side, the opposition alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal relies on its core support from Muslims and Yadavs—together about 31 per cent of voters. They partner with the Congress, which retains some influence among forward castes and minorities, and left-leaning groups rooted in rural areas. Tejashwi’s promises, like a massive Rs 2 lakh crore fund for youth employment, aim to attract voters outside his traditional base.

But the real question goes deeper than winning votes. Can social identity shift from being about ‘who you are’ to becoming a tool for ‘advancing together’? Bihar’s human development score lags behind the national average, with poor education outcomes standing out. When politics focuses too much on short-term gains for specific groups, it overlooks big-picture planning. A better approach would maintain support for the disadvantaged while linking it to skill-building and job readiness. States like Tamil Nadu and Kerala show how to blend social fairness with investments in people. Breaking free from rigid identity-based politics could finally unlock Bihar’s untapped strengths, creating opportunities that benefit all.

Economic growth versus everyday struggles: Progress with pain points

Bihar’s economy tells a story of contrasts. Its total output reached about Rs 11 lakh crore in 2024–25, growing at a strong average rate of over 10 per cent annually, making it one of India’s faster-growing states. Yet, income per person is only about half the national level, underscoring growth that has not yet transformed most lives. Farming employs half the population but contributes just 20 per cent to the economy—a mismatch worsened by frequent floods. In 2024 alone, these disasters caused massive damage, displacing thousands and costing billions.

Migration is a hidden driver of survival. Over four crore Biharis work elsewhere, sending home around Rs 2.5 lakh crore each year—a lifeline that sustains families but masks the lack of local jobs and industries. Nitish Kumar’s focus on governance improved roads, power, and basic services, but industry remains weak. Manufacturing contributes barely 8 per cent to the economy, compared to Gujarat’s 18 per cent.

The ruling alliance’s plans include Rs 1.25 lakh crore from the Centre for urban renewal and transport hubs, while the opposition promises cash aid and free electricity. Both could strain finances, with the state’s debt already at 38 per cent of its output. What Bihar truly needs is a sustainable roadmap—centres for agro-processing, solar-powered irrigation, and flood-resilient infrastructure. Aiming for 20 per cent renewable irrigation by 2030 could create half a million rural jobs and reduce disaster risks. A shared council of experts, politicians from all sides, and business leaders could help guide long-term plans, keeping them steady despite political shifts.

This economic story is not just about numbers. It is about families scraping by, young people dreaming of better futures, and a state rich in potential but held back by old problems. True change would mean turning growth into jobs that keep people in Bihar, reducing the need to leave home.

Leaders in flux: Balancing experience and trust

Leading Bihar has always required navigating turbulent waters. Nitish Kumar has switched alliances five times in 20 years—most recently returning to the NDA in 2024—a move that dented his image and earned him nicknames like “Paltu Kumar.” Yet his record includes a nearly 30 per cent drop in crime since 2005 and programmes advancing women’s education, raising female literacy to 60 per cent. Still, voters appear weary of his frequent shifts. A C-Voter poll from October 2025 suggests his party might win 40 to 50 seats, down from 43 last time, reflecting growing frustration.

Tejashwi Yadav represents a younger face, advocating against corruption and for jobs. He has moved past family scandals and appeals to Bihar’s two crore new voters. Yet, his family’s long political dominance limits his reach beyond core supporters.

Prashant Kishor’s new outfit, Jan Suraaj, emphasises good governance, education, and basic income, potentially drawing 10 to 15 per cent of votes and splitting the opposition.

Nationally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal remains strong, but Bihar’s joblessness, at 7.6 per cent compared to the national 4.1 per cent, poses hurdles. Movements like the campaign against alleged voting machine irregularities point to more engaged citizens. If voter turnout exceeds 65 per cent, it may favour the opposition in close contests.

Bihar deserves leaders committed to integrity. Parties could limit terms, ensure transparency in funding, and create independent oversight bodies, as seen in Singapore, a country I recently visited. Such measures could elevate politics beyond personal games and rebuild trust.

A changing electorate and the renewal of Bihar’s democracy

Bihar’s voters are evolving, with women, youth, and new civic priorities shaping the state’s political future. Women now form nearly half the electorate, thanks to reservations in local bodies, yet their workforce participation remains low at 20 per cent. Without real measures—such as childcare, credit access, and workplace safety—campaign promises will ring hollow.

Youth, who make up 40 per cent of voters, are increasingly impatient with slow change. Many chase government jobs or migrate for work, revealing the lack of opportunity at home. A forward-looking agenda must focus on digital literacy, AI and tech skills, and entrepreneurship hubs to retain talent and end the migration cycle.

The environment is also becoming a quiet but decisive concern. Floods and droughts, intensified by climate change, hit Bihar hardest. A cross-party pact for river-linking, green farming, and afforestation could draw international support while safeguarding rural livelihoods.

These shifts reveal an electorate seeking more than handouts—they demand dignity, opportunity, and a real voice in governance. Political leaders who listen and adapt can redefine Bihar’s destiny.

Polls differ: a NewsX survey puts the NDA ahead with 140 to 155 seats, while Axis My India predicts a tight race. But, beyond the contest, Bihar needs a renewed democratic compact—a 10-year, cross-party plan for inclusive growth and transparent governance. Priorities should include raising social spending to 15 per

cent of the state economy, using digital IDs for fair welfare delivery, and curbing money power in elections.

As Biharis stand in line to vote, their choice will reflect a deeper aspiration—to move from politics rooted in identity to one grounded in development, equity, and hope. The result on November 14 could well mark a turning point not just for Bihar, but for the democratic spirit of India itself.

Amal Chandra is an author, political analyst, and columnist. He tweets @ens_socialis.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.