Bihar Assembly polls: Why is RJD-Congress hesitant to ally with Owaisi's AIMIM?

As Bihar’s election scene heats up, political parties are vying to secure their share within respective alliances. Lok Sabha MP Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which won five seats in the previous assembly elections, is preparing to contest again, particularly in the minority-dominated Seemanchal region. This time, however, it is actively seeking an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

So far, the RJD has shown little enthusiasm for AIMIM’s overtures. Party sources said letters sent earlier this year by AIMIM’s Bihar chief, Akhtarul Iman, to RJD president Lalu Prasad Yadav drew muted responses. Owaisi has since renewed his call for cooperation, publicly demanding six seats to avoid splitting votes that, he argued, could otherwise benefit the Bharatiya Janata Party.

If AIMIM contests alone, the Seemanchal region is likely to see a four-cornered contest involving the NDA, the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party.

Analysts say AIMIM remains a factor other parties cannot ignore. For the Mahagathbandhan, accommodating AIMIM would mean recognising an alternative Muslim leadership in a state where the RJD traditionally positions itself as the main beneficiary of Muslim-Yadav votes. Such a tie-up would also give the NDA scope to attack the RJD-Congress alliance, potentially sharpening communal polarisation and diverting attention from the issues that Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi wish to highlight.

Congress leaders are also wary of the national implications of aligning with AIMIM. BJP, they argue, could exploit such an alliance to target Congress across the country, adding to its political costs.

For AIMIM, the push for an alliance stems partly from past experience. Four of its MLAs defected to the RJD in the last assembly, raising questions about the party’s ability to retain elected representatives in a state dominated by two major alliances.

Seemanchal, comprising Araria, Katihar, Purnia and Kishanganj districts, has a Muslim population of over 45 per cent. In 2020, AIMIM contested 20 seats, and its independent run this time could hurt the Mahagathbandhan the most by splitting minority votes.

Owaisi has already launched a four-day Seemanchal Nyay Yatra to consolidate support and demonstrate his party’s strength. The move follows Congress’s Vote Adhikar Yatra and Tejashwi Yadav’s subsequent tour of the state. The BJP and JD(U) are yet to begin similar programmes.

Meanwhile, the BJP has signalled its intent by appointing Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan as its election in-charge for Bihar, with Union Minister C.R. Patil and Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya named co-incharges. Pradhan, known for his experience in election management, is expected to lead the party’s campaign and outreach efforts.