The Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress-led Mahagathbandhan is joined by three more parties—Vikassheel Insaan Party, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and LJP led by Pashupati Paras—this time, compared to the 2020 assembly elections, when the bloc had three constituents: RJD, Congress and the Left parties. The new entrants have turned the seat-sharing process more complex and delicate for Bihar's 243 assembly seats.
With these additions, Mahagathbandhan has become a group of eight parties, including the three Left parties: CPI, CPI(M) and CPI(ML). “We have involved all like-minded people who stand with us in the fight against vote theft and in safeguarding democracy and the Constitution," Congress Bihar spokesperson Gyan Ranjhan says. "The INDIA alliance has already finalized the seat-sharing formula, which will soon be shared in the public domain. We are in a very comfortable position, and the people of Bihar will definitely shower their blessings on the INDIA alliance to form the government in the state," he added.
According to sources, the Opposition bloc has already outlined the seat-sharing formula, where the Congress has been offered 66 seats. Moreover, the grand old party is now supposed to accommodate Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and LJP led by Pashupati Paras. And the third one, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), led by Mukesh Sahni, will now directly deal with the RJD.
"The Congress party will now talk to JMM and Paras and decide how many seats they should get. Probably they will get two each," a Congress party insider said, "and the VIP will get its share of seats from the RJD quota."
The three additional parties carry strategic significance in Bihar, as they appeal to voters of the same caste groups in a state where deep-rooted caste-based voting is the norm.
Mukesh Sahni carries influence among Nishad voters, who make up around 10 per cent of Bihar’s population. The JMM has some appeal among tribals, who account for a little over 1 per cent, while through Pashupati Paras, the grand alliance hopes to split the Paswan vote. Notably, Paswan voters have traditionally shown strong support for Chirag Paswan. In the 2020 assembly elections, Chirag secured around 5.77 per cent of the votes while contesting independently on about 140 seats.
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the RJD contested 144 seats, Congress 70, and the three Left parties together held 29 seats. However, Congress was seen as the weakest link, recording a strike rate of less than 30 per cent. The RJD emerged as the leading party among all parties in the state, winning 75 seats, followed closely by the BJP with 74 seats.
During the recent Voter Adhikar Yatra, all leaders of the Mahagathbandhan were brought together by Rahul Gandhi, giving greater limelight to the alliance’s face, with some analysts suggesting that the bloc has already won the first phase of elections.
"The narrative Rahul Gandhi had created did find resonance among people. It has done one important thing, and that is it has consolidated the opposition voters," a political observer said.
With the Opposition's push to strike a right balance in seat distribution amongst its constituents, there are significant challenges on the other side as well.
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Though seat-sharing talks within the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance are yet to be finalized, the JD(U) and BJP have broadly agreed to contest an equal number of seats. Tensions, however, have surfaced after JD(U) leaders demanded one extra seat, arguing that the BJP fought 17 and the JD(U) 16 in the recent Lok Sabha polls under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. With the assembly elections to be contested under Nitish Kumar as the alliance’s chief minister face, the JD(U) insists it should now be accorded the “elder brother” status.
Moreover, leaders like Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi, and Upendra Kushwaha are all seeking a considerable share of seats, putting the alliance in a tight spot. JDU spokesperson Abhishek Jha, however, stated that there is no friction within the alliance, and all other details will be announced officially.