Divide-and-rule or full statehood? Jammu & Kashmir’s fate hangs in balance as BJP-led Centre weighs options

Is Jammu and Kashmir on the verge of regaining its statehood, or is the region facing another round of political restructuring? Lately, speculations have ranged from the restoration of statehood to a controversial bifurcation, granting statehood to Jammu while retaining Kashmir as a Union Territory (UT).

The trigger for this debate was the approach of August 5, the date on which Article 370 was abrogated in 2019 and the former state of Jammu and Kashmir was divided into two UTs—Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

Many believed the Narendra Modi government might use the occasion to announce another major decision. A high-level meeting between PM Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and President Droupadi Murmu added fuel to the fire. Given the government’s history of using symbolic dates for historic decisions, expectations grew that something major would unfold.

But the day passed quietly. No announcement came. Why? It remains unclear, but it hasn’t silenced the debate.

One reason being discussed is the upcoming Supreme Court hearing on August 8. A petition was filed by two Kashmiris, Zahoor Ahmad Bhatt and Khushir Ahmad Malik demanding time-bound restoration of statehood. The Centre may still act before or after this hearing. However, the suspense remains alive.

Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has been vocal about the issue. His government had passed a resolution demanding statehood in its very first cabinet meeting in October last year. The resolution, approved by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, was forwarded to the Centre. Abdullah has demanded the restoration of statehood, not forcibly. He has even said he’s willing to give up the CM’s post if it helps in achieving this goal.

When the August 5 rumours reached their peak, Abdullah posted on X: "Nothing will happen. Fortunately, nothing bad will happen. Unfortunately, nothing good will happen either." Many interpreted this as a reference to two scenarios—restoration of statehood as the “good” and further division as the “bad”.

Mehbooba Mufti, former CM and PDP leader, and a vocal critic of the BJP, marked August 5 as a “black day”, calling the abrogation of Article 370 unconstitutional. She accused the Centre of erasing Jammu and Kashmir’s identity and failing to deliver on promises of normalcy or development. All eyes are now on August 15. Will PM Modi announce statehood for Jammu and Kashmir during his Independence Day address from the Red Fort?

However, a more worrying theory has taken hold — that the Centre might grant statehood to Jammu alone, along with parts of south Kashmir that fall within the newly created Anantnag-Rajouri Parliamentary constituency and are largely inhabited by people belonging to Schedule Tribes (ST) , while keeping Kashmir as a Union Territory. This idea, long promoted by the RSS, would split the region along religious lines: Hindu-majority Jammu gets a state, while Muslim-majority Kashmir remains under direct central rule.

Why this approach? Politically, it would benefit the BJP. In a standalone Jammu, the party could likely form the government, gaining direct administrative control. In contrast, Kashmir remains a challenge for the BJP. The region still elects regional parties, despite the 2022 delimitation exercise. National Conference, Congress, and other secular parties retain support in Kashmir.

There are fears the Centre might go a step further by turning Kashmir into a UT without any legislature. No MLAs, no ministers, no chief minister—only a Lieutenant Governor. That would be a serious blow to democratic representation and would lead to complete disempowerment of the Muslim majority region, a feeling palpable among a large section of the population.

Critics argue this idea stems from the RSS mindset of division, aiming to weaken the political strength of Muslim-majority Kashmir. By denying it legislative power, the Centre could reduce Kashmiri political influence and further isolate the region.

This strategy, if true, poses serious constitutional and democratic concerns. It would deepen mistrust and widen the gap between Kashmir and the rest of India. Most Kashmiris want a dignified relationship with the Union, but denying them democratic rights risks pushing them further away. The denial of statehood has reinforced this feeling.

Observers warn that such a move breeds alienation and a feeling of suppression by the Centre. A divided Jammu and Kashmir would be seen by many as a communal, politically motivated act.

As speculation swirls, questions remain unanswered. Will statehood be restored in full? Will Kashmir be denied a legislative voice? And if limited statehood is granted, will Abdullah or any other mainstream leader accept a powerless CM position?

Days leading up to Independence Day may provide clarity. Or they may only deepen the uncertainty that has come to define the politics of Jammu and Kashmir since 2019.