The exit of N. Biren Singh as chief minister of Manipur has met with mixed reactions, with both the administration and people in the state’s hill and valley districts seeing it as a necessary step toward restoring normalcy. However, the real challenge now lies in selecting a consensus leader who can bridge the deep ethnic divide between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities and restart the stalled peace talks.
There is growing speculation that the state may come under President’s Rule, with Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla temporarily overseeing affairs to prevent any escalation of violence. However, some believe that the BJP’s Northeast coordinator, Sambit Patra, could help diffuse tensions and guide the party toward selecting a new leader who can claim the mandate to govern in the coming days.
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The BJP has been forced to acknowledge that the ethnic violence, which erupted in May 2023, has significantly damaged both its image and local support base. This was reflected in the 2024 general elections, where the party lost both Lok Sabha seats in the state. With divisions within the party between pro- and anti-Biren Singh factions, there is mounting pressure to contain the political fallout before the 2027 assembly elections.
There is also the continued security challenge in the tiny Northeastern state, to guard against a spillover of the political change. Intelligence officials are already talking of valley-based armed insurgent groups operating from Myanmar that can become active to create unrest. This is why the way forward becomes critical at this juncture for the BJP after Biren’s resignation.
The valley-based insurgent groups had already established bases across the Indo-Myanmar border, sources said, using the unrest to smuggle weapons and recruit new insurgents. Officials explained that there is concern that these factions could regroup to spell trouble for the next dispensation. Security sources also warned that if there is prolonged political uncertainty, it could strengthen these insurgent groups, making it even more difficult to restore normalcy.
The immediate challenge for the next leadership will be to bring both the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities to the negotiating table, along with representatives from the Central and state governments. The removal of buffer zones—set up to prevent direct clashes between communities—is another critical step, but this process is expected to take time due to the risk of renewed violence in border areas.
An immediate concern is the large number of people living in displaced camps unable to go home and the fear that has set in with missing weapons that remain in circulation across the state. Security officials stress that without recovering these arms, any attempt at peace will be fragile at best. Despite the leadership change, all eyes are on whether a new government will be able to restore law and order or simply address the political considerations at play. While many see Biren Singh’s removal as a step toward reconciliation, it will take much more to heal the people and prevent further conflict in the strife-torn state.