Even as AAP and Congress contested the polls separately, despite being members of the INDIA bloc, they collapsed against the might of BJP in Delhi. The big victory for the saffron party in the national capital builds on the similar victories in Haryana and Maharashtra against the divided Opposition.
The NDA had given two seats to its allies from Bihar, JDU and LJP (RV), who though lost to the AAP candidates, but managed to keep the larger alliance intact nationally. On the other side, contesting separately, Congress could not open its account, though it was runners up in only one seat, Kasturba Nagar. The BJP's victory strengthens the narrative of strong NDA and divided India bloc.
The Congress managed to improve its voting percentage by nearly two percentage, hardly enough to win any seat, but enough to dent AAP’s chances in many seats, including the New Delhi from where Arvind Kejriwal lost. The Congress’s Sandeep Dikshit got over 4,500 votes, which is more than BJP’s Parvesh Verma’s winning margin of nearly 4,100 votes. Had both AAP and Congress contested together, the INDIA bloc had a chance at victory.
What do the divisions in INDIA bloc signal?
AAP and Congress are against each other in Punjab, even though they are allies in the state capital Chandigarh. Lok Sabha MP from Chandigarh, Manish Tewari, was a joint candidate of Congress and AAP. Even both parties were in alliance in Chandigarh MCD, where AAP lost the mayor’s post recently owing to cross voting. AAP’s loss in Delhi will be felt most acutely for the party in Punjab, much to the satisfaction of the Congress’s state unit.
Both AAP and Congress also had a chance for an alliance in neighbouring Haryana, but as the grand old party’s state leadership was against any tie-up with AAP both went separately, the BJP which was battling anti-incumbency managed to score a historic victory.
In Delhi, despite some indications of a tie-up as both parties had during the Lok Sabha polls, the talks did not fructify owing to pressure from the local Congress leadership. The result is for everyone to see. Though the tie-up won’t have guaranteed a victory, but it could have kept the allies together.
The India bloc’s other constituents primarily Samajwadi Party, Trinamool, Shiv Sena, NCP factions had supported AAP as they wanted to pool resources. The Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s stringent attack on AAP and Kejriwal brought bitterness between the two parties. Gandhi singled out AAP for his attack questioning its record on corruption, construction of Sheesh Mahal, and crumbling infrastructure.
Jammu and Kashmir CM Omar Abdullah, apparently exasperated at the results, took a jibe at both AAP and Congress, “keep fighting.”
While the Congress will make assessment as to how much their decision to contest alone will help the party to revive its fortunes, both have a future together as they jointly take on NDA in the Parliament and other states.
After the loss is Delhi, the focus will shift to other states, Bihar, which goes to polls later this year, and other states – Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Pudducherry which will face assembly polls next year.
Though AAP may not have much vote bank in these states, winning and retaining those seats would need polling of resources. The divisions in the INDIA bloc had earlier forced Bihar CM Nitish Kumar to quit the alliance and return to the NDA fold.
In Bihar, Congress, RJD and some other smaller parties are in alliance. They would need to marshal all their constituents to take on NDA, which has been energised with victories in Haryana, Maharashtra and now Delhi.
Next year, the INDIA bloc may again witness the allies at the national level fighting against each other in Assam, West Bengal and Kerala. Trinamool may field candidates in Assam where Congress is the main opposition, while the Congress and the Left parties may come together in Bengal polls to oppose Mamata Banerjee. However, in Kerala, Congress and the Left would again be fighting a bitter battle.
Both Congress and AAP may again find themselves in quandary in 2027 when elections to Punjab will be held, where they are against each other.
The loss in Delhi will rankle the INDIA bloc for a long time as the BJP has managed to win it after 27 years. Will it force a rethink in the alliance as INDIA bloc fight a larger battle against the NDA?
