Like every one of India’s Republic Day, the selection of the chief guest for the event is a strong messaging of Indian strategic policy and positioning. That this year it is the President of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, is replete with significance.
Not that it is the first time an Indonesian leader has graced the event as the chief guest—in fact, he is the fourth one from the country, not surprising considering the traditionally warm relationship between India and Indonesia.
It is interesting that exactly 75 years ago, when India adopted the Constitution and became a Republic, Sukarno, the first President of Indonesia, was the Chief Guest at India’s first Republic Day in 1950.
This is all the more important when India is eyeing Indonesia in a very interesting manner to further military ties.
With a growing military industrial complex, India is increasingly assuming the role of a military equipment manufacturer, with the Brahmos and Akash missile systems, radars and Tejas light fighter aircraft leading the rack on assets and platforms being offered for sale. While the Philippines is the first country to buy Brahmos missiles from India, talks with Indonesia are believed to be actively ongoing for a similar deal.
Selling the Brahmos has a problem in the sense that it can only be sold to a country that is ‘friendly’ to both India and Russia as the supersonic missile is a joint India-Russia collaboration. It has been reported that in the next couple of weeks, an Indonesian delegation would land in India to take forward the Brahmos deal believed to be valued at $450 million.
New Delhi and Jakarta are also expected to talk about Indian naval shipyards building warships for the Indonesian Navy and the Coast Guard.
At about 13 per cent, Indonesia has the world’s largest population of Muslims. A close relationship with Indonesia would be looked at favourably by India’s Muslims who comprise more than 14 per cent of India’s population.
Located in a very strategic geography, it would be in India's interest that Subianto doesn’t lean towards Beijing much.
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While there are reasons to believe that Subianto may be favourably inclined to the Chinese, India would try to balance it out with a better relationship with the controversial President. A former lieutenant general in the Indonesian Army, Subianto has a chequered past. He was once banned from entering the United States because of his rights record.
About two and half months ago, Subianto, on an official visit to China, had issued a joint statement on ‘advancing the comprehensive strategic partnership’ with China that was not found to be aligned with Jakarta’s position on China’s vision of a global order. It would have compromised Indonesia’s traditional stance of impartiality among major powers.
Yet, China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner with the total value reaching $139 billion in 2023. China is also the second-largest foreign investor in Indonesia after Singapore.