The Pir Panjal, which includes the Rajouri and Poonch districts of the Jammu region, has become the focus of militant activities due to several strategic factors.
First, its topography offers cover and transit routes for militants. The rugged terrain, dense forests, and elevated areas provide hiding spots, refuge in caves, and convenient escape routes. This terrain advantage allows militants to evade security forces and launch surprise attacks, making operations here riskier for the security forces.
Moreover, the proximity to the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) makes Rajouri and Poonch districts advantageous for infiltration.
Unlike other areas like Kupwara and Baramulla, the nature of the LoC in Rajouri and Poonch, with its rivers and ravines, offers cover for militants during their crossings, lowering the risks involved in infiltration.
Strategic passes in the Pir Panjal range, like Haji Pir, Pir Panjal, and Banihal, provide seasonal access to the valley from PoK.
This seasonal accessibility during summer offers militants a window to move between regions, effectively using the mountain range as a transit route.
Additionally, the militants' ability to blend in with the local population on both sides of the LoC contributes to their effectiveness. They capitalise on shared demographics, assimilating and maintaining a low profile until they are ready to strike.
The recent surge in militant activities and the tactical shift towards Pir Panjal also stem from the losses suffered by militants in Kashmir valley. Over 590 casualties in anti-militancy operations in the last three years have made this area a battleground, drawing more attention from militants aiming to challenge security forces here.
The change in leadership within the Pakistan Army has also influenced this shift. After the abrogation of Article 370 and the subsequent ceasefire agreement on the LoC in 2021, there's been a transition in the leadership of militant groups from local to foreign elements, possibly due to a perceived relaxation or shift in the approach by Pakistan concerning the Kashmir issue.
The emergence of groups like TRF and PAFF, with names avoiding Islamic connotations, creates an impression that the militancy in Kashmir is indigenous rather than ideologically driven. This rebranding might be an attempt to change global perceptions and garner local support.
In essence, the Pir Panjal region's unique geographical features, its proximity to PoK, seasonal accessibility through strategic passes, and the shifting dynamics in militant leadership and strategy have collectively transformed it into a new battleground for deadly militancy in Jammu and Kashmir.
The security forces say that around 30 foreign militants operate in the Pir Panjal area. Some of them are retired soldiers of the Pakistan Army well-versed in survival tactics in forests and mountains and the use of sophisticated weapons like US-made M4 carbines. According to the South Asian Terrorism Portal, “most of the Special Forces (SF also known as Paras) fatalities in the recent attacks have occurred in SF initiated operations, where the militants entrenched themselves in fortified positions or targeted troops in movement.
These incidents have reversed the trend of declining fatalities among SFs since the recent high of 95 recorded in 2018, now reflected in 2023 with 33 troopers killed as opposed to 30 in 2022. There were 78 SF fatalities in 2019, 56 in 2020, and 45 in 2021. Moreover, the SF-terrorist kill ratio, though still in favour of the SFs in 2023, has deteriorated: 1:2.6 compared to a more substantial 1:6.4 in 2022. Experts believe that the key to handling the challenge in Pir Panjal is better intelligence for which the support of the locals, especially Gujjar and Bakerwals (nomads) is the key.