The Election Commission has ushered in the poll season with the announcement of election dates for five states. The stakes are much higher for both the BJP and the Congress in these elections as the results will also set the tone for 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
In the three Hindi heartland states—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh—it is a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP. The BJP will seek to avenge the defeat of 2018 when it lost all the party-ruled states to Congress. The BJP has tweaked its strategy by making Prime Minister Narendra Modi the main campaigner and decided to seek votes in his name. The party is not projecting any chief ministerial candidate but is going ahead with a collective leadership plank.
The passing of the Women's Reservation Bill, the successful conduct of G20 and the launch of Chandrayaan-3 have given a boost to Modi government’s image. The party is expected to use these achievements to woo voters.
In the latest list of candidates released, a few hours after the announcement of election dates, the BJP fielded Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan from Budhni and former Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh from Rajnandgaon. Following the Madhya Pradesh experiment, the BJP has fielded seven MPs in Rajasthan, prominent among them being Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, Diya Kumar, and Kirodi Lal Meena. By fielding the MPs, the BJP has signalled that it does not want to take any chances and would like to field the best candidates. The Lok Sabha polls can wait!
These polls are significant as they will decide the political trajectory of BJP’s state leaders Chouhan, Raman Singh and former Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje. If the party goes on to win the elections in these states, it may bring in new leaders to be appointed as chief ministers.
While the BJP desperately seeks to gain control of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and hold on to Madhya Pradesh where it faces anti-incumbency, this round of elections will be a test of how the opposition alliance INDIA fares against the BJP. As of now, some of the alliance partners like the AAP and SP have decided to field candidates in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
The Congress is betting big on the promise of caste census, its guarantees for women and the youth in these states, old pension scheme, and cheaper LPG cylinders against the BJP’s promise of development, welfarism and Hindu-sentiment-oriented campaign. These elections will give both sides an opportunity to test their respective strategies and promises ahead of the general elections.
The Congress had tasted success during the last round of elections when it won Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh. If the Congress goes to do well in the upcoming elections, it will raise the party’s stature and get enough bargaining power within the INDIA alliance.
The elections are expected to focus heavily on the women voters as all parties had supported the Women's Reservation Bill. Out of the 16 crore voters in the five states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram, 7.8 crore are women. There are also 60.2 lakh first-time voters who can influence the result in the tightly fought elections.
The election season will coincide with the festive season in the country, along with the Cricket World Cup that is currently on.
The voting for Mizoram and 20 seats of Chhattisgarh will take place on November 7, and the remaining states after Diwali on November 12. The Cricket World Cup final will take place on November 19.
The remaining 70 seats in Chhattisgarh will go to polls on November 17 alongside all 230 seats in Madhya Pradesh. The voting for all 200 assembly seats in Rajasthan will take place on November 23, while the 119-member Telangana assembly will be the last to go to polls on November 30. The counting will take place on December 3.