Even as monsoons hit the Kerala coast in advance, the Indian Metereological Department (IMD) said India is likely to experience normal monsoons this year. The IMD has also noted that India's southern peninsula and north east regions might be looking at lesser rainfall this season.
The IMD predicted only 93 per cent of the LPA for the north east and 95 per cent for the southern peninsula. The same number is 96-104 per cent for the country as a whole. The IMD said this as it released the second stage Long Range Forecast for the 2018 southwest monsoon rainfall on Wednesday. The second stage forecast of the IMD gave the forecast for the season [June to September] as a whole, as well as monthly forecasts for the period between July and August.
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Further, while the rains are likely off to a good start, August might not be such a wet month, with a prediction that the rains will be only 94 per cent of the LPA.
Rainfall that is less than 96 per cent of the LPA is considered “below normal”, according to the met bureau's terminology. The LPA, which is the average rainfall received by the country as a whole during the season over a 50-year period (from 1951 to 2000), is 89 cm. A “normal” monsoon is 96-104 per cent of the LPA, while rainfall at 90-96 per cent of the LPA is termed “below normal”.
The second stage forecast was prepared using a six parameter ensemble forecasting system and the monsoon mission climate forecast system.