With just a few hours to go, a tiny state in the northeast would be the centre of all political attention.
Tripura, one of the smallest states in India, will learn on Saturday whether it gave a decisive mandate to the CPI(M) led-Left Front government for the sixth time in a row or whether there will be a big change. The change, if it happens, would mean that the BJP not only would come to power for the first time in the state but such a result would mean it would have won its first-ever 'direct' battle against Communists in the country.
The state is, therefore, tense. Tripura has worn a thick security blanket with heavy deployment of Central armed police forces like CRPF and BSF and the state’s Tripura State Rifles. About 3,000 companies of CAPF have been deployed across the state.
The BJP’s young brigade is leaving no stone unturned and is paying close attention to all counting centres of the state. State BJP president Biplab Deb is personally overseeing the deployment of men and women activists of the party in counting stations all around the state.
In an unprecedented election, Tripura this time won the attention of the whole of India due to the first straight battle between the left and the BJP. As many as 52 BJP leaders flew to Tripura from Delhi to campaign, with Amit Shah making Agartala his home for a few weeks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the state three times.
On the CPI(M) front, it was interesting to see the presence of Prakash Karat and his wife apart from a band of other Communist leaders from West Bengal and Kerala.
Manik Sarkar, the chief minister of Tripura, is known to be a hardliner in the party who had opposed the alliance of Congress and CPI(M) in West Bengal along with Karat. He is a close friend and follower of Karat’s principles in the party.
Interestingly, Karat was seen only once in the 2016 West Bengal elections where he addressed two small meetings. On the contrary, he spent considerable time in Tripura to try to ensure Sarkar, his comrade in arms, retains his place.
But will the CPI(M) be able to retain Tripura?
Gautam Das, a member of the CPI(M)'s central committee from Tripura, said “Any prediction just before counting would amount to disregarding the people’s mandate.”
Asked about the prediction of exit polls, Das said, “We don’t believe in these. We will not underestimate the people. We have full faith in people and whatever needs to be said, we will say after the result.”
The BJP side, on the other hand, is buoyant and seems all set to celebrate a belated Holi on Saturday.
When contacted over the phone, Sunil Deodhar, the man behind the BJP’s seemingly sparkling presence in Agartala, told THE WEEK, “We are sure that the BJP is going to form the government. Don’t be surprised if you see us getting a landslide victory. Don’t blame me then that I did not inform you about this!”
The BJP estimates that it would win between 42 to 45 seats out of 60 (In fact 59 seats, due to death of a candidate before the election).
For many political pundits, it was very difficult to gauge the swing the BJP expects to see in Tripura this time.
“One of the reasons could be that no one believed that a party, which last time secured only 1.5 per cent of votes, would now be the decisive force. In fact it’s on the verge of snatching power from the left for the first time in the history of elections in India. And I must say their calculation is not based on fake surveys. It’s very much attainable. I will be surprised if the Marxists retain power in Tripura,” said Sekhar Dutta, a veteran political observer of Tripura politics.
Obviously, the BJP has reasons to be confident. But it’s also tense. If it wins, Modi would be able to silence millions of critics and his confidence would be boosted ahead of bigger elections in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh later this year.
If the BJP loses, Modi would be charged with creating a fake wave in favour of his party. Furthermore, in that case, fresh blood will be infused into the Communist movement, which many believes is slowly going into extinction in India.
