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Beyond the Dubai crash: Why HAL's future remains strong despite LCA Tejas accident

Despite investor concerns over future Tejas orders, HAL remains fundamentally strong

The news from Dubai on Friday shook every Indian. An indigenous multi-role Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas crashed at the Dubai Airshow, resulting in the death of Wing Commander Namansh Syal. This was the second such accident involving LCA Tejas in less than two years.

On Monday, the stock market showed its nervousness. Shares of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), among other defence stocks, declined nearly 4 per cent at the end of the trading session. However, experts point out that the trend looks temporary and HAL is likely to bounce back soon.

According to experts, the market reaction looks understandable as investors are worried about the future order of Tejas. However, they observe that the defence PSU is fundamentally strong and the decline may be only a temporary phenomenon.

According to sector experts, such incidents do not mean that there are inherent issues with the Tejas programme, although the crash may have a short term impact on HAL share prices.

In a regulatory filing, HAL said it is extending full support and cooperation to the agencies conducting the investigation and will keep the stakeholders informed of any material developments. Though HAL is under continuous scrutiny, it has a strong order book, which includes the 97 Tejas aircraft.

Experts point out that the company has big contracts, cutting-edge technology, and carries the weight of national pride. The share price might remain soft for a little while, but with such strong backing and clear roadmaps, recovery and growth seem inevitable.

The single-engine 4.5-generation multirole aircraft, designed by India's Aeronautical Development Agency and built by HAL, first took to the skies in 2001 and was inducted into the Indian Air Force officially in 2016.

“What makes Tejas jet special is its construction as advanced materials like aluminium-lithium alloys, titanium alloys, and carbon-fibre composites form 45 per cent of its weight and cover 90 per cent of its surface. This makes Tejas one of the lightest yet strongest supersonic fighters anywhere, capable of speeds up to Mach 1.6, roughly 1,975 km per hour. It is actually the smallest fighter in its class,” explained defence and space analyst Girish Linganna.

Linganna said that though accidents are tragic and demand serious investigation, in 2025 alone, over seven military aircraft crashed worldwide, including two advanced US F-35 jets. Air shows globally have witnessed more than 100 mishaps in the past decade.

“Flying at high speeds and low altitudes during demonstrations is inherently risky, but that doesn't automatically mean the aircraft itself is defective. Experts are examining several possibilities for the Dubai crash, including sudden engine thrust loss from the GE F404 engine during a critical maneuver, negative G-forces that might have disoriented the pilot, or even timing errors at dangerously low altitude. The important part is that the Indian Air Force has shown confidence by not grounding the Tejas Mk1 fleet. They have clarified that this happened during an airshow demonstration, not during operational missions, and flights continue across India while investigations proceed thoroughly,” added Linganna.

HAL is fundamentally strong and the company’s future remains bright despite this setback. As India's major fighter aircraft manufacturer, the company has massive orders, which will significantly boost the company's business in coming years. In late September 2025, HAL's chief D.K. Sunil announced that with the defence ministry's orders, the company's order book would swell to Rs 2.7 lakh crore by FY27. 

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