Very few visits of chiefs of the Pakistani military to the United States would have garnered as much interest and attention as that of the anticipated trip of Chief of the Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir when he is expected to land there on Thursday (June 12).
Munir, already fortified and decorated with a new rank, has reportedly been invited to attend the 250th US Army Day celebrations on June 14—also the day Trump will step into his 80th year.
Whether Munir gets the opportunity to wish Trump a ‘happy birthday’ or not, his visit to the US is a definite sign that the US is cognizant of where the real power in Pakistan lies—and definitely signaling a new warmth after a brief hiatus. This hiatus was the period when Pakistan swerved towards China.
Munir’s visit comes in the aftermath of a four-day intense fight between India and Pakistan that saw fighter aircraft, drones and missiles being liberally used by both sides even though the exact extent and scale of devastation lies hidden in the fog of war with the two mounting on intense campaigns to further their narratives.
During the conflict, President Donald Trump made certain pronouncements that were indicative of hyphenating India and Pakistan that stood out in stark contrast to the Indian position that perpetrators of terror should not and cannot be equated with the victim.
The unpredictable Trump also offered to mediate on the Kashmir issue, again going against the Indian stand that no third party can intervene in the Kashmir issue as New Delhi describes it as a bilateral issue.
Interestingly, on Tuesday, US US Central Command chief General Michael E Kurilla, during a hearing by the House Armed Services Committee, said the US needs to have a relationship with both India and Pakistan, and the latter because of its role to counter the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP).
“That’s why we need…to have a relationship with Pakistan and with India. I do not believe it is a binary switch that we can’t have one with Pakistan if we have a relationship with India,” Kurilla had said. This signals a rebuff to Indian efforts to isolate Pakistan for its active collaboration and aid to terrorist groups that have mounted attacks in India including the Pahalgam incident of April 22.
Against this backdrop, Munir’s expected visit is replete with implications.
One, the US is keen that Pakistan should not sway any more towards the Chinese. Beijing and Islamabad have a very close military relationship with about 81 per cent of Pakistan’s military imports coming from China. It is via Pakistan that China reaches out to the Arabian Sea with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor where Beijing has already invested about $60 billion. A good relationship with Pakistan would mean a good market for US weapons besides the strategic implications of restricting China.
Two, Pakistan has considerable deposits of rare earth minerals including lithium, gold and copper especially in Baluchistan—something that the US has been consistently looking out for. Already several moves are afoot to facilitate US exploration and exploitation of Pakistan’s rich mineral resources.
Three, it is only with Pakistan’s active help that the US can hope to counter the growing ground of the Islamic State and its affiliates who have declared the US as their enemy number one.
Fourth, the US knows that Pakistan is under a lot of financial pressure even as China seeks repayment of the loans that Pakistan has taken from Beijing. It can be a good opportunity to exploit Pakistan’s vulnerability.
Fifth, signs of proximity with Pakistan may be a tactic to apply pressure on India to choose the Americans as a preferred side over the Russians with whom India has traditionally close military and strategic ties.