Kokrajhar, Apr 7 (PTI) Despite the BPF's recent landslide win in the Bodoland Territorial Council polls, the political landscape in this western Assam belt appears fluid ahead of the assembly elections, with no clear frontrunner, even as the NDA seeks to leverage its tie-up with the Bodoland People’s Front across 15 seats.
The BJP-led alliance enters the fray with a perceived edge, banking on its renewed partnership with the regionally dominant BPF, but local dynamics and the entrenched influence of regional players like the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) continue to keep the contest open.
National parties, including the BJP, have made limited inroads into the electorate, with the BPF and UPPL retaining their status as principal contenders, while the Congress-led opposition alliance is expected to play only a marginal role.
The BTC, an autonomous body under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution, administers Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa, Udalguri and Tamulpur districts.
In a significant realignment, the BJP parted ways with its former ally UPPL and re-inducted the BPF into the NDA fold after the latter’s emphatic victory in the BTC polls in October last year.
The Hagrama Mohilary-led BPF, a dominant force in BTC politics since 2005 barring a single stint out of power in 2020, has remained a key ally in successive state governments, irrespective of whether the Congress or the BJP was at the helm in Dispur.
Though initially kept out of the current regime, the BPF later extended support to the government inside the assembly before formally joining the ruling alliance.
“The BPF may have got a resounding mandate in the BTC elections, winning 28 out of the 40 seats just at the end of last year. But, that does not mean that it is sweeping the assembly polls,” said Prahash Sharma, a Kokrajhar-based entrepreneur associated with various local civil society bodies.
While the BPF enjoys a lead over the UPPL, observers say the latter cannot be written off despite its recent electoral setback.
“Of course, it is in the lead over its main rival here, UPPL. But the UPPL, though voted out barely six months ago, cannot be ruled out to make a dent in the BPF’s poll fortunes,” he said.
Seat-sharing arrangements reflect the shifting alliances, with the BPF contesting 11 seats and the BJP four, while the UPPL has fielded 17 candidates, covering all 15 constituencies in the BTC region.
Within the opposition bloc, the Congress is contesting the bulk of seats, leaving one each to Raijor Dal and the CPI(M).
In the outgoing assembly, the UPPL has seven MLAs from the region, followed by the BPF with three and the BJP with two. The elections are being held for the first time after the 2023 delimitation exercise, which redrew constituency boundaries.
Local observers believe the opposition’s prospects hinge on effective vote transfer among allies.
“In a couple of seats with good number of Muslim voters, the Congress and its allies may give a fight to the NDA or UPPL. But, whether the opposition candidates emerge winners, it remains to be seen,” said Utpal Deka, a former teacher from Tamulpur.
The role of Adivasi and tea tribe voters is also expected to be crucial in several constituencies, with consolidation of these votes likely to influence outcomes.
“We have to take into account the smaller parties as well as dissidents contesting as Independents. They may prove to be the spoiler for the bigger players and throw up some close contests,” Sharma said.
He added that Bengali-speaking Hindu voters, traditionally seen as BJP supporters, could tilt the balance in favour of the NDA, though the party had struggled to make an impact in the BTC polls when contesting alone.
Both Sharma and Deka underlined that voting behaviour varies across the council, assembly and parliamentary elections, with electors often factoring in the alignment of regional parties with the ruling dispensation in Dispur.
“BPF aligning with the BJP, which is seeking a third straight term in the state, may nudge the voters to choose it over UPPL,” Sharma said.
Tamulpur has emerged as a key battleground, with Assembly Speaker Biswajit Daimary of the BJP taking on UPPL chief and former BTC head Pramod Boro.
Deka maintained that it will be close contest with Daimary entering the fray with the advantage of BPF’s backing, while Boro has the “local” sentiment playing in his favour.
The Kokrajhar seat is also drawing attention, where BTC chief Mohilary’s wife, Sewli, is making her electoral debut and is seen to hold an edge.
Polling for the 126-member Assam assembly will be held on April 9, with counting scheduled for May 4.