There is trouble brewing in Kashmir, and for once, it has got nothing to do with terrorism. Soon after the National Conference-led government completed its first year in office, it hit a grave crisis. In the Budgam assembly byelection held in November, it lost big time. It was a seat that had been historically considered ‘safe’ for the party and was vacated by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah after he won both the seats he contested.
Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, one of the party’s two MPs in the Lok Sabha, refused to campaign in Budgam, which helped arch-rival PDP. National Conference workers allege that Mehdi was working against the party while Abdullah openly called out his absence as “political suicide”.
While Abdullah secured over 50 per cent of the votes in the 2024 polls, the party’s vote share dropped to just 27 per cent in the bypoll.
There is trouble on other fronts, too. There seems to be no end to the tiff between Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha and the elected government. And the Congress, Abdullah’s ally, is figuring out ways to steer away from the alliance.
All these have forced the National Conference to go on damage control mode. It has listed over 10 initiatives of the government, including the resolution on special status in the assembly and the one on statehood passed by the cabinet, and enhanced marriage assistance and free bus service for women. The campaign has not resonated well with people.
What’s making the situation worse is that the business rules, which define the division of powers between the lieutenant governor and the elected government, are yet to be put into effect. The absence of business rules has deepened confusion over authority and accountability.
For instance, the Kashmir Power Distribution Corporation Limited recently proposed a 20 per cent surcharge on base electricity tariff during peak hours in the Valley. Though the National Conference had opposed the move, people saw it as a policy of the Abdullah government and the backlash hit the party hard.
Statehood could have brought clarity and made the government more accountable, but the Centre is yet to make any moves. “The home minister made assurances that statehood would be restored. We are still waiting,” says Imran Nabi Dar, spokesperson, National Conference. “People have expectations from the government but the bureaucracy has not been welcoming. For the first time, cabinet decisions are being undermined. For example, recently a cabinet decision was taken, the official document was sent to the lieutenant governor and when it returned, 25 per cent of the provisions had been altered.”
In October, Sinha had targeted the Abdullah government over its claim that projects would be implemented only after statehood was restored. “Even without statehood, all powers rest with the government,” he said. “I want to emphasise today that people should not be fooled, and the government should use its powers to work for the people of Jammu and Kashmir.”
Sinha’s remarks had stung Abdullah, who hit back by saying that the Pahalgam attack had happened on Sinha’s watch as law and order and security fell under the LG’s jurisdiction. “Twenty-six of our guests were killed, and he is advising us to do our work,” he said. “We know our work, you do yours. I was CM for six years (earlier), show me one instance where a tourist was hurt?”
Dr Noor Ahmad Baba, a former professor of the University of Kashmir, said that Abdullah’s initial appeasement of the BJP—he had praised the prime minister for holding elections—was because he wanted the statehood restored without any confrontation. “He carries larger responsibilities and has commitments to the people, commitments he must fulfil,” he said.
Mehdi, meanwhile, has publicly targeted his party and government, highlighting unfulfilled promises. Moreover, he has declared that he will launch a protest after the winter session of Parliament against the Abdullah government’s reservation policy that keeps aside majority posts for reserved quota candidates and leaves little for open merit candidates. “Hypothetically, [Mehdi] may be playing the game the Centre [wants him to play] because anything that undermines local parties in the region will suit the BJP,” said Baba.
And then there is the Congress, which is proving to be another headache for Abdullah. Just before last year’s elections, a section of senior leaders within the Congress, including state leaders, had advised the leadership to go solo to safeguard the party’s future in the state. But the party high command eventually allied with the National Conference.
Congress leaders believe that in an attempt to win favour with the BJP, Abdullah has often been unkind to the party. For instance, the Abdullahs had assured the Congress high command of a ‘safe’ seat in the Rajya Sabha polls. Instead, the party was offered an ‘unsafe’ seat, which was vulnerable to BJP lobbying.
There is a growing demand within the state Congress to move away from the National Conference. According to sources, the state unit has already requested the high command to quit the alliance, but no decision has been taken yet.
“If the Congress is sure that the National Conference government will not fall in case it pulls out from the alliance, then it may take a decision to go separately,” said political commentator Ahmad Ayaz. “Otherwise, such a decision will again give space to the BJP to somehow come back, which the Congress would not want.”
This internal shift also stems from the rise of Tariq Hamid Karra within the J&K Congress. He has been trying to consolidate power and create an unofficial, non-factional hierarchy, sidelining figures from various groups. Many in the party have now aligned themselves with Karra, who is seen as the party’s primary heavyweight.
“Within the party, there are differing opinions: one view suggests it is beneficial to continue in the alliance, as we are natural allies with a common enemy and shared causes,” said Nizamuddin Bhat, Congress chief whip in the assembly. “The other view holds that the Congress has a future of its own and can emerge as the premier party. Therefore, we should go solo. At the moment, there is no [coalition] coordination committee in place, so one could say there is practically no coordination at all.”
That is certainly not good news for Abdullah.