Nitish Kumar has long been one of the great survivors of Indian politics. First appointed chief minister of Bihar in 2000 for just seven days, he patiently waited for five years for another opportunity. He has since become the longest-serving chief minister of Bihar, with nearly two decades in power. Now, as Bihar prepares for assembly elections, the question is no longer about his legacy, but whether there is room for another act.
Amid the nationalistic fervour following Operation Sindoor and the afterglow of the caste census promise, the ruling National Democratic Alliance claims it is poised for another term. Nitish continues to command respect for his governance, especially among the extremely backward castes and women. His Janata Dal (United) remains aligned with the NDA, along with the parties of Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi. Senior BJP leaders have made it clear that the next election will be contested under Nitish’s leadership and that he would become chief minister again. Yet, speculation refuses to die down.
Many suspect a scenario similar to Maharashtra, where the NDA fought the polls under the leadership of Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde, but after the results, BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis became chief minister. But for that to play out in Bihar, the BJP would need to significantly improve its current tally of 75 seats in the 243-member assembly. In 2020, Nitish offered to support a BJP candidate as chief minister after his party won only 43 seats, but the BJP insisted he remain in the post. Five years on, the electoral arithmetic has not shifted dramatically, but the political tone has. There have been questions about Nitish’s health and his occasionally erratic public appearances.
“There is no doubt about Nitish’s leadership or governance. A few who hold personal grudges against him indulge in such talk,” said senior JD(U) leader Neeraj Kumar. “After our grand success in the Lok Sabha polls, comparisons with Maharashtra are not tenable. Nitish has already offered to let the BJP choose its chief minister.”
And the BJP backs Nitish. “There is no doubt that Nitish will be the chief minister face and will continue after the polls,” said BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash.
The NDA now includes Paswan, unlike in 2020, when he directed his political attacks against Nitish while expressing support for Modi. By contesting a large number of seats, he dented the JD(U)’s numbers. Since then, the 42-year-old has mended his relations with Nitish, at least publicly. Paswan, the Union minister for food processing industries, is not hiding his ambitions and often presents himself as a youth icon.
For the BJP, the challenge has been grooming a leader to replace Nitish. Despite trying various caste combinations, none have matched Nitish’s broad appeal. In the caste-driven politics of Bihar, the BJP still lacks support among key communities that remain loyal to their own caste leaders. It continues to be seen largely as a party of the forward castes, though it has sought to win over other backward castes as it has done in other heartland states.
According to political observers, the BJP’s best opportunity will come only when Nitish exits electoral politics, allowing space for new leaders from other castes. The BJP’s strengths lie in its national appeal, Modi’s popularity and its extensive booth-level infrastructure. However, the absence of a strong local leader remains a gap. Figures like Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, who represents an OBC community, or Union minister Giriraj Singh, an upper-caste Bhumihar, do not enjoy Nitish’s cross-caste reach.
Although the BJP opposed caste census at the national level, it supported the exercise in Bihar when Nitish, then allied with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, carried it out. The survey found that OBCs comprised 63 per cent of the population, dalits 20 per cent, scheduled tribes less than two per cent and upper castes around 15.5 per cent.
Observers, however, say the public reaction to the announcement of the nation-wide caste census has been muted. The Modi government’s surprise announcement may be an attempt to address concerns over Bihar’s survey methodology, which was said to be rushed and incomplete. Some feared that undercounting, particularly of upper castes, could negatively affect their social and political representation. “The survey was conducted over a very short period, and enumerators could not reach many areas. Many people claimed they had not been contacted,” said B.N. Prasad, professor at the A.N. Sinha Institute of Social Studies, Patna. Yet, by announcing a national caste census, the BJP has arguably neutralised a major plank of the opposition.
The BJP’s strength lies in its organisational outreach, built through meticulous booth management and support from groups associated with the sangh parivar. During a recent visit to Bihar, Union Home Minister Amit Shah pledged to build a grand temple at the birthplace of Sita. The caste arithmetic, too, appears to favour the NDA: Nitish represents the Kurmi-Koeris, who form 8-9 per cent of the population; Paswan and Manjhi represent dalits, who constitute 20 per cent. Only Yadavs and Muslims remain largely outside the NDA fold, and they are the mainstay of the RJD’s support.
Women voters are another crucial factor benefiting Nitish and the NDA. They have been significant beneficiaries of direct benefit transfers and several welfare schemes launched by both the state and Central governments. In the last Lok Sabha elections, women voters outnumbered men. Programmes like Jeevika Didi, which aims to empower women through livelihood programmes and community institutions, have been widely appreciated.
Another issue bolstering the NDA is the wave of nationalism following Operation Sindoor. Incidentally, Modi’s rally in Bihar occurred just after the Pahalgam terror attack. There, he vowed to avenge the killings and eliminate terror bases. Having fulfilled that promise, this will be a major theme in the BJP’s campaign. “We don’t see it as a Bihar-specific issue. Modi ji happened to be in Bihar when he spoke, but it reflects our national security commitment. Our battle against Naxals is in its final phase.... People trust the BJP to protect national security,” said Prakash, the party spokesperson.
In the last Lok Sabha elections, the NDA lost nine seats compared with its 2019 tally, but it still led in 174 assembly segments. The JD(U) led in 74, the highest for any party, followed by the BJP in 67. The RJD, which was the single largest party in 2020 with 75 seats, led in only 36 segments.
Challenging the NDA is the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance), comprising the RJD and the Congress. The RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav retains a strong grip on seats dominated by Yadavs and Muslims, but the Congress remains organisationally weak. The alliance attacks Nitish’s government on issues of unemployment, corruption and his alleged ill health.
A new player has also entered the scene: Prashant Kishor. A former strategist for Nitish, Kishor now frequently criticises him, making this a potential three-cornered contest. Whom he ultimately damages remains to be seen. “It was Nitish who brought electricity and built roads even in the villages of opposition leaders. He will form the government again,” said Neeraj Kumar.
Often underestimated, Nitish has proven to be indispensable, so far. He has retained relevance through a loyal vote bank and his adept manoeuvring between ideologically opposed alliances. This election features a new generation of leaders waiting in the wings, while Nitish hopes to take oath as chief minister for the tenth time.