In diplomacy, there are no coincidences. Every word, gesture and act is carefully weighed. Even more so in China, with its 2,200-year-old tradition of organised diplomacy, among the oldest continuous diplomatic traditions in the world. So, on May 15, there may well have been a reason why Chinese President Xi Jinping invited US President Donald Trump to touch a 280-year-old tree in the “secret garden” inside Zhongnanhai, the Chinese equivalent of the White House and the Kremlin.
Trump touched it and muttered: “Good. I like it.” But he may also have been made to realise that he was touching a tree older than the United States, which is 249 years old, underlining a civilisational comparison the Chinese are particularly fond of making.
Trump had hoped for a “G-2” moment, hinting at key American and Chinese roles in shaping the destinies of nations as the world’s two most powerful countries. But it was not to be. The announcement of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arrival in Beijing just four days after Trump’s departure would have dampened his spirits further. It is the first time Beijing has hosted the US and Russian presidents in the same month outside a multilateral setting. Such high-profile visits are timed with great care and carry deliberate messaging and strategic positioning.
The Trump-Xi summit underscored China’s unequivocal rise to a point where it now stands on equal footing with the United States. China did not budge on its position regarding Iran and instead reiterated its stance, pointing to Xi’s four-point plan for the Middle East that called for peaceful coexistence, politically negotiated settlements, shared security and development-driven cooperation. To Washington’s discomfort, China’s foreign ministry described the Iran war as one “which should never have happened, has no reason to continue”.
Nor did trade talks end on a positive note, with the much-anticipated Boeing deal between the US and China significantly scaled down, leading to a fall in Boeing shares. While the US had expected China to order around 500 Boeing aircraft, only 200 were ordered.
“Trump’s decision to visit China even when nothing of significance was achieved in the Iran war was an admission of his failure to compel Iran to submit to American will,” said Kumar Sanjay Singh, who teaches history at a Delhi University college. “Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and its detrimental impact on the international economy has eroded Trump’s popularity in the US at a time when elections are scheduled for November. He was desperate to seek an off-ramp.”
With his domestic approval ratings plunging to a record 37 per cent, Trump would have wanted China to help him out of the Iranian impasse. “The US wanted Chinese support on the Iran issue. The Chinese silence suggests they are not willing to bail out America,” said former Indian ambassador to Iran, Dinkar Prasad Srivastava. “In case the US remains mired in the conflict, it will weaken it in facing the Chinese challenge globally.”
Singh, too, stressed this point. “China converted this vulnerability to establish de facto parity with the US as a superpower. And the Chinese refusal to assist the US on Iran is prompted by how the Iranian war is hastening the process of de-dollarisation of the international economy.”
Gautam Bambawale, former Indian ambassador to China, said the summit failed to resolve the competition between the two major powers. “Based on this analysis, we can see that competition between the two major powers, the US and China, will continue to be the hallmark of international politics. India and other middle powers can take great satisfaction from this outcome.”
Interestingly, there was no joint statement post summit. Even on the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme, Beijing and Washington were unable to find common ground. While the White House stated that “both countries agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” China made no explicit mention of this. Instead, the Chinese statement said: “It is important to steady the momentum in easing the situation, keep to the direction of political settlement, engage in dialogue and consultation, and reach a settlement on the Iranian nuclear issue and other issues that accommodates the concerns of all parties.” The statement did not mention anything about Tehran’s imposition of tolls or Iran’s militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz.
The other major issue on the US-China agenda was Taiwan. The US appeared hesitant when Xi emphasised that China’s territorial integrity was a red line and that mishandling Taiwan could lead the two countries into military conflict. As a result, the US statement on the Trump-Xi talks made no mention of Taiwan.
“China had prepared for the summit and has reason to be satisfied with it. Xi successfully showed Trump that he had no cards without saying it bluntly once he had set out his red line on Taiwan,” said Rakesh Sood, former Indian ambassador and an expert on disarmament. “To successfully practise multi-alignment, India should maintain better relations with both the US and China than they have with each other.”