TWO WEEKS INTO the conflict, the inadequacy of the American security umbrella in the Gulf has been totally exposed. US defensive systems are being overwhelmed, its bases and embassies struck, key radars destroyed, and F-15 fighters and MQ-9 Reaper drones shot down. Several places in Israel—among them Tel Aviv, Galilee and Haifa—have also borne the brunt of Iranian missiles and drones.
Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is threatening global oil supplies and a sharp rise in prices of oil and natural gas is having cascading effects on all aspects of the global economy.
India, too, is directly affected and, every day the war continues, its concerns mount as it scrambles to secure its vital interests.
ENERGY SECURITY
Every dollar increase in crude oil price means an increase of $2 billion in the annual bill, as India imports 1.8-2 billion barrels of crude oil a year. With oil prices expected to touch $100-110 soon, it would mean an increase of almost $30-40 billion—half of India’s defence budget. When the increased costs of insurance, time and cost of travel are added, the issue becomes too large to ignore.
The other crucial question is of reserves. As per Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, India has 74 days of reserves and the government is looking at alternate arrangements.
SAFETY OF DIASPORA
No other country has a larger diaspora than India in the Gulf, totalling almost 1 crore. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said that around 67,000 Indians have returned home; 100 more flights are scheduled over the next few days. If the conflict escalates, it could be a logistical nightmare to evacuate so many Indians.
NATIONAL SECURITY
The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader led to peaceful protests in cities including Lucknow and Srinagar. The issue needs to be watched should an internal or external actor attempt to take advantage of the emotions and stoke violent protests. Similarly, an American submarine sinking the IRIS Dena in the Southern Indian Ocean raises questions on India’s ability to control maritime activities in its backyard.
STRATEGIC AUTONOMY
The fact that the Iran situation was discussed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel on February 25-26 raises questions if Israel, a strategic partner, kept our prime minister in the dark of its intentions. India also did not condemn the strikes on Iran nor did we condole the death of its supreme leader.
India’s decision in February to relinquish its stake in Chahbahar port under American pressure was seen as weak. We have civilisational ties with Iran, a neighbour till the partition brought Pakistan in between. It is important that any perception that India is choosing sides does not come at the cost of its strategic autonomy.
LOOKING AHEAD
With increasing petroleum prices, there is also the threat of inflation and the risk of the rupee depreciating against the dollar. Industries are already being impacted—like in Gujarat’s Morbi, the world’s second-largest ceramics hub. And, the livelihood of people working in the Gulf (remitting over $30 billion annually) could come under threat. As a result, India has to think ahead and secure its interests.
The author is a foreign policy expert and senior research consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, Delhi. X@rajeev1421