The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader has confirmed that the war aims of Israel and the United States extend beyond the nuclear issue to regime change. Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme had been making progress and did not justify military intervention.
In retaliation, Iran has launched missile and drone attacks on Israel as well as on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Airports in Abu Dhabi and Dubai have been hit. The Gulf states have closed their airspace and commercial airlines have suspended flights. An oil tanker has been struck in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman. Saudi Aramco’s refinery at Ras Tanura, as well as an LNG facility at Ras Laffan in Qatar, have also been targeted.
The region, which hosts a nine-million-strong Indian diaspora, is now engulfed in conflict.
The outbreak of hostilities was preceded by an unprecedented build-up of US forces in the region, even as talks on the nuclear issue were under way between Iran and the United States. The USS Abraham Lincoln was deployed in the Gulf of Oman, while the USS Gerald Ford was stationed in the Mediterranean.
As the US military presence expanded, Iran informed the UN Security Council that, if attacked, it would exercise its right of self-defence by retaliating against Israel and US bases and assets in the region. The IRGC Navy also conducted exercises in the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate its ability to block the vital waterway through which nearly twenty per cent of the world’s oil supply passes.
The third round of indirect talks, mediated by Oman, concluded on a positive note on February 26 in Geneva. Oman’s foreign minister, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, said in an interview on February 27 that a “peace deal is within our reach”. Israel and the United States struck the following day. The military action pre-empted the possibility of a negotiated settlement.
Following the assassination of the supreme leader, Iran announced the formation of an interim Guidance Council consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary Mohsen Ejehi, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a jurist from the Guardian Council. Meanwhile, the IRGC has launched fresh missile salvos against Israel and US targets. The leadership transition has not diminished Iran’s ability to prosecute the war.
Regional fallout
Even before the US-Israeli strikes, the leaders of nine Arab states had written to President Donald Trump advising against military action. Their appeal reflected deep concern that their countries would suffer collateral damage in the event of war. Subsequent developments have vindicated those fears.
India’s interests
Since the beginning of February, the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has risen by $4.54 per barrel. Within three days of the outbreak of war it climbed by a further $10.42. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices even higher. For India, every one-dollar increase in the price of oil adds roughly Rs 14,000 crore to the country’s annual import bill.
Apart from crude oil, India sources around 55 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf region, of which Qatar accounts for about 40 per cent. Following the attack on the Ras Laffan facility, Qatar has declared force majeure on the production and supply of LNG. This has removed roughly 20 per cent of global LNG supply at a stroke.
The resulting shock has driven up gas prices sharply. In Europe, prices have risen by around 50 per cent, while the spot price of LNG in the Asian market has nearly doubled to $25 per mmbtu. As a result, Petronet and GAIL have reduced gas supplies to the domestic industry in India.
During my tenure as India’s ambassador to Iran, I had the privilege of negotiating India’s participation in the Chabahar port project. We should complete the project as soon as the situation permits. Geography does not change, and the port will remain strategically important for India’s access to Afghanistan.
Similarly, India must continue developing the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), which could significantly reduce the time and cost of trade with Russia. The corridor is also vital for improving India’s access to Central Asia.
The way forward
Trump has indicated that the war could continue for another five weeks. Even so, such a campaign may not achieve regime change. What it will certainly do is devastate a region that is home to a nine-million-strong Indian diaspora.
There is therefore an urgent need to declare a ceasefire and resume negotiations on the nuclear issue, which had already made considerable progress. Iran is unlikely to compromise on its missile programme, which it regards as its only effective deterrent against Israeli or American attack. It has already faced military strikes from both countries twice.
Changing course will not be easy after the highest levels of leadership have invested political capital in the declared objective of regime change. Yet it remains a better option than a prolonged war. An extended conflict would erode American capacity to counter China in the Taiwan Strait and could prove a costly gamble in an election year in the United States.
The author negotiated the Chabahar agreement as ambassador to Iran and was director, GAIL.