In the early hours of February 28, the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack on Iran. For the past few weeks, the mobilisation of the American armada in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf had suggested that a war between the US and Iran was imminent. Iran had faced a joint US-Israeli attack in June 2025.
The objectives of the American-Israeli attack on Iran in June and February are clear: dismantle Iran’s nuclear installations, destroy its missile programme, and compel regime change in Tehran. This time, Iran made it clear that it would target American military bases in the Gulf, conduct retaliatory attacks against Israel, and destabilise the Gulf region by closing the Strait of Hormuz and hitting at American interests in the region. It is yet to be seen how far the Iranian regime, deprived of its supreme leader and military leadership, will proceed with retaliatory acts against Israel and the US.
What are the implications of the US-Israeli attack and how will prevailing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan impact the escalation of war in the Gulf region? How will Pakistan react to the possible crippling of the Iranian regime?
Islamabad is stuck in a ‘devil and the deep blue sea’ situation. On the one hand, it has to consider the anti-American and anti-Israel sentiments that got an impetus as a result of the attack on Iran. On the other hand, it has to keep in mind its strategic relations with the US and Saudi Arabia. Conspiracy theories in Pakistan about the prevailing war in the Gulf emanate from the timing of US-Israeli attack. It took place when Pakistan was deeply involved in its armed conflict with Afghanistan. Also, the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Israel concluded days before the US-Israeli attack. Whatever be the objectives of attack, it needs be analysed in the context of its implications in south and west Asia.
One needs to be mindful of the fact that if the conflict escalates further, Pakistan would be in deep trouble. Islamabad argues that the growing Indo-Afghan nexus, and the support seen to be rendered by India and Israel to Afghanistan in its prevailing conflict with Islamabad, is not an ordinary situation. It is also believed in Pakistan that Israel will turn to its actual target after destroying Iran: Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal.
Is Pakistan ready to face joint Indo-Afghan and Israeli strategic pressure? Already, Pakistan is grappling with the surge of violence and terrorism in the restive provinces of Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhthunkhwa, and its economic predicament is worsening with each passing day. Will Pakistan’s military, facing a two-pronged threat on its eastern and western borders, succeed in dealing with the alarming situation? How will Pakistan deal with the outburst of popular sentiments if Israel and the US succeed in dismantling the Iranian regime? There is a sectarian dimension to the growing security predicament: around 20 per cent of Pakistan’s population are Shia Muslims, who sympathise with Iran. The attack on the US consulate in Karachi on March 1 reflects the popular resentment against the attack on Iran and the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran’s missile attack on Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and the UAE—pro-American states that have economic and security ties with Pakistan—will put Islamabad in a difficult situation. To maintain neutrality will be an uphill task for Pakistan. Most importantly, reports of the Afghan support to Israel and perceived coordination between Kabul and New Delhi have Pakistan shocked.
Is the state of Pakistan capable of dealing with multiple security threats emanating from the US-Israeli attack on Iran and ongoing armed conflict between Kabul and Islamabad?
Implications of US-Israeli attack on Iran needs to be analysed from two angles. First, the failure of diplomacy to avert it. Like the June 2025 attack, the recent attack happened when talks between Tehran and Washington were going on. The fact is that, after the June 2025 attack, Iranian power had weakened. Iran had lost Syria as its ally and was facing pressures in Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. Furthermore, the Iranian regime faced a popular uprising led by the students. Although that revolt was crushed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a wide section of Iranian society had turned against the regime.
Second, if Pakistan is facing a dilemma in the ongoing war in the Gulf, India is also in the same situation—because, by siding with Israel and the US against Tehran, it would lose its age-old strategic and economic ties with Iran. Furthermore, the economic fallout of the Gulf war will have serious financial and economic implications on South Asia, which will be reflected in the surge of oil and essential commodity prices. It will now be up to China and Russia, as two major powers, to prevent the collapse of Iran by putting their weight in favour of Tehran. If the war goes on, it would have devastating impact on global economy and security.
Ahmar is professor of international relations and former dean, faculty of social sciences, University of Karachi.