IT’S A BIRD, it’s a plane, it’s a Rafale.
Few fighter jets are so instantly identifiable from the ground. The aircraft’s triangular wings and forward canards (small wings placed in front of the main ones) give it a distinct silhouette against the sky. That silhouette is now soaring to a new high—towards an India-France government-to-government contract that may well become the single largest military procurement in the acquisition history of either country.
With the defence acquisition council headed by the defence minister approving the purchase proposal on February 12, it is now up to the Cabinet Committee on Security to give final clearance. After that, transactional negotiations will begin.
The plan is to buy 114 Rafale fighters from the French defence major Dassault Aviation at an estimated 3.25 lakh crore (about $40 billion). The acquisition is meant to narrow the air-power asymmetry that India faces with China while preserving New Delhi’s edge over Islamabad in the coming years.
It has been more than two decades since the need for more fighter squadrons was first identified. In 2001, the medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA), then called the medium role combat aircraft (MRCA), was conceived to replace the ageing MiG-21s with 126 modern fighters. The aim was to procure multirole omnibus fighters suited for regional security concerns.
In 2012, Dassault’s Rafale was declared the winner, edging out the Eurofighter Typhoon (built by a European consortium), the American F-16 (Lockheed Martin) and the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet (Boeing), MiG-35 (Russia) and Sweden’s Gripen (Saab).
In 2014, a $15-billion deal was finalised for 126 fighters—18 off-the-shelf and 108 to be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), with technology transfer implications. But the deal was scrapped in 2015 by the new government, which instead purchased 36 Rafales in flyaway condition for about $7.9 billion. The local assembly component was discarded, and so did clarity on the extent of technology transfer.
The figures were striking: $7.9 billion for 36 fighters and $15 billion for 126. The projected cost in 2026 has risen to $40 billion for 114, including weapons and support packages.
While the deal was in the making for long, the sense of urgency that the defence ministry may have felt while approving the new deal is rooted in strategic realities. The four-day Operation Sindoor reinforced the need to significantly boost air power. With the planned induction of 83 LCA Tejas Mk-1A fighters, the future Mk-2, and the fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) plagued by delays, India had to plug operational gaps.
But fighter procurement is never just about numbers. The engines and systems of an aircraft are projections of a country’s defence technology prowess. The components and processes involved in manufacturing them are closely guarded secrets.
India, for instance, was denied transfer of compound semiconductor chip knowhow, even though the technology figured in offset discussions. The refusal eventually pushed Indian scientists towards a domestic breakthrough in March 2023.
France has also been reluctant to share the Rafale’s source code, which governs critical systems like weapons, radars and sensors. Without this source code, India will not be able to integrate the aircraft with indigenous weapon systems and home-made equipment.
But the Indian Air Force cannot wait indefinitely when the south Asian security matrix is rapidly shifting. For decades, the IAF’s sanctioned strength has stood at 42 fighter squadrons, because the military architecture has been Pakistan-centric. Now, both China and Pakistan are seen as adversaries. “As a basic requirement to fight a two-front war… the strength of 42 squadrons may be very small. There is an urgent requirement to substantially increase the benchmark,” said a top source in the military establishment.
The IAF has only 29 operational squadrons. Its fleet of around 520 aircraft is diverse but ageing—12 Sukhoi-30 squadrons, three Mirage-2000, two Rafale, two Tejas, alongside MiG-29s and Jaguars. Around 250 more aircraft are needed to reach the current sanctioned strength, and any further revision of the strength will require hundreds more.
Pakistan, which has around 500 combat aircraft, is expanding its joint programme with China to manufacture JF-17 Thunder aircraft. With China, the IAF has to contend not just with the asymmetry in numbers but also with the technology aspect. China operates around 300 twin-engine J-20 Mighty Dragon fifth-generation fighters that are already being mass-produced. It also operates more than 50 J-35 stealth fighters.
For India, choosing the Rafale has its advantages. First is the familiarity factor. The IAF already flies Rafales, which means training, tooling and spares ecosystems exist. Second, maintenance costs would be lower. Third, the bureaucratic maze of procurement would be shorter because the road has been travelled before.
India’s security requirements have long been mired in politics, indecision, and an obvious lack of coordination and foresight. That is why the recent approval for 114 Rafales for $40 billion—after scrapping a 126-aircraft deal for $15 billion—is increasingly looking like India has circled back to the point where it started from, and with more urgency.