The Bihar election hints at a structural shift in the state’s electoral behaviour. A 5 per cent rise in turnout produced a decisive tilt toward the National Democratic Alliance.
The most striking feature was the gender gap—71.6 per cent turnout among women compared to 62.9 per cent among men, though women voters were fewer in absolute numbers. This is now a women-centred democracy in practice.
In 2020, the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies surveys estimated women were split almost evenly: 37 per cent for the NDA and 36 per cent for the grand alliance. This time, the gap widened sharply. Women voters delivered what can be described as a farewell gift to Nitish Kumar. After the grand alliance projected Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial face, and he pressed the NDA to reveal its own, Nitish gained ground as many women shifted toward the NDA. Direct benefit transfers amplified this. The 10,000 assistance targeted at women worked, as DBT by ruling parties did in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
Alliance composition and organisational discipline also shaped the outcome. Stable vote bases of NDA partners added volume. The grand alliance lacked that coherence. Multiple alliance constituents did not match their claims of support. As a result, the NDA expanded its base; the opposition could not protect its own.
The dark horse was Chirag Paswan, whose rising vote share gave the NDA a sharper edge.
The new player keenly watched was Prashant Kishor. When his supporters were asked about their second preference, they leaned toward the JD(U), indicating Jan Suraaj was cutting into JD(U) vote rather than the NDA’s larger bloc. Jan Suraaj secured 3.5 per cent but did not destabilise the alliance.
Caste arithmetic reinforced the NDA’s gains. Among OBCs, who constitute about 28 per cent of the electorate, Yadavs form nearly half. The rest leaned heavily toward the NDA. The RJD’s Muslim-Yadav combination weakened after Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM cut into its base. In the 28 seats the AIMIM contested, the NDA won 20, the AIMIM five and the grand alliance only three. Wherever the AIMIM won, the grand alliance fell to third.
The RJD also failed to counter the “jungle raj” narrative. Tejashwi had to defend his party while Tej Pratap Yadav drifted into pro-BJP signalling. Rahul Gandhi made no substantial impact. The NDA surge also impacted the left parties, reducing both seats and vote share.
These polls signal new patterns. One is caste-neutral voting among women. Some Muslim women voted for Nitish, indicating possible rise of a cross-caste voting class. As the opposition regroups, the question of succession within the JD(U) remains open. A broader vacuum in the regional space is taking shape.
The BJP is positioned to strengthen its base. Its sustained outreach to non-Yadav OBC groups has paid dividends. The emerging leadership vacuum in the opposition widens its opening.
Bihar’s politics has moved through dominant phases: upper-caste dominance after independence, backward-forward contests in the 1970s, intra-backward consolidation in the 1990s, and ongoing competition within the OBCs. There are signs of emerging conflict between the OBC and the dalits, and within dalit groups. This election hints at the beginning of that shift.
—As told to Pratul Sharma
The author is a professor of political science at Patna University.