India’s northeast could be facing danger from more ‘water bombs’ built by China that have gone unnoticed amid the uproar over the world’s largest dam being planned in the neighbouring country near the border. Several dams have been constructed in China on the transboundary Lohit river (or Zayul Chu) that ripples through the districts of Anjaw and Lohit in eastern Arunachal Pradesh before merging with the Brahmaputra in Assam. The dams are located in Zayul (or Zayu) county in the Nyingchi prefecture of China’s Tibet Autonomous Region bordering India and Myanmar.
The projects are at an estimated 90km from the border between the two countries, according to some researchers who are keeping a tab on developments in that region. Glimpses of the dam activity can be gleaned from the report submitted by the Zayul county government at the fourth session of the 12th People’s Congress of Zayul county some years ago. It says that ‘every effort’ has been made to “promote the accelerated development” of hydropower energy along with animal husbandry, tourism, Tibetan medicine and other industries.
Further, the report points out that the development of the hydropower energy industry would be accelerated with the goal of building a “West-to-East Power Transmission” connection base, following the norms of “parallel development and protection” and enhancing cooperation with large domestic power group companies. Efforts would be made to expedite the construction of Hongdong, Omi, Zala and other power stations and promote the research and planning of hydropower development in the basins of the Zayul and Yuqu rivers.
These developments appear to have escaped the attention of observers and researchers in India. Elsewhere, academics and activists of Tibetan organisations are aware of the construction of dams in Zayul county and the future plans firmed up by the Chinese government for harnessing more hydel energy in the ecologically sensitive and fragile region.
“The dam on the Lohit river poses the same threats as other dams of its size in the Eastern Himalayas and adjacent Hengduan mountains, which are intensely earthquake and landslide-prone areas. There were also some reports that it could be extended. Unlike the dams on the Brahmaputra river, they have not received anywhere near the same attention,” said Ruth Gamble, faculty member at La Trobe University in Australia, and the lead author of Rivers of the Asian Highlands, from Deep Time to the Climate Crisis.
Also monitoring the developments in Zayul county and elsewhere in the Tibet Autonomous Region is the International Tibet Network. Responding to queries, the group’s Lobsang Yangtso described the dams on the Zayul Chu as “alarming” since Tibet is ecologically sensitive, highly seismic and experiencing acute climate change. “So dams could easily get damaged in that region. There is nobody to protest against these activities in Tibet. Moreover, information is extremely scarce about developments in Tibet,” said the researcher, with a caveat that “the livelihoods of people in downstream regions might get severely affected”.
The developments across Arunachal Pradesh assume importance against the backdrop of the soured ties between India and Pakistan and the speculation over the possibility of China’s retaliation through these mega projects. Recently, Victor Zhikai Gao, vice president of the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalization, warned India, “Don’t do unto others what you don’t want done to you.” He was referring to China’s strategic advantage on the Yarlung Zangbo, a tributary of the Brahmaputra river and vital to India’s water security. Further, Gao emphasised that India could face “difficulties” if it resorted to retaliatory measures (against Pakistan).
Y. Nithiyanandam, a geospatial researcher and former NASA station manager, has warned that the water volume in the Sutlej river has fallen by over 75 per cent over the past five years. Likewise, local people from the twin districts of Anjaw and Lohit in Arunachal Pradesh have observed a decrease in the water level in the Lohit river, which is most conspicuous between Walong and Parasuram Kund. But it is not precisely known if the phenomenon is linked to the dam activities across the border. A government official who was posted in Lohit’s district headquarters of Tezu three years ago also claimed that the weather in the region has undergone changes, best evidenced by the declining wind speed at Parasuram Kund at night.
The greater concern in India is over the Yarlung Zangbo river that originates from the glaciers in northwest Tibet and contributes about 30–35 per cent of water to the Brahmaputra. Some dams and hydropower stations have already been built and some are being planned, including the world’s largest at the Great Bend just before the river enters Arunachal Pradesh.
However, experts and a section of officers in the security agencies are of the view that the possibility of these mega schemes being used as ‘water bombs’ by China could prove more lethal to India than the impact from the blockage of these rivers.
Tapir Gao, who represents the Arunachal East constituency in the Lok Sabha, recently sounded an alarm over the dams in the neighbouring country at a seminar in Guwahati, saying that these projects would have a devastating downstream impact on the northeast and Bangladesh. He claimed that the devastating floods in June 2000 were triggered by a similar “water bomb” that had washed away more than 10 bridges on the Siang river, as the Yarlung Zangbo is called in Arunachal Pradesh.
The Lohit river has a significant social and economic role in Arunachal Pradesh, similar to the other rivers flowing from China. They contribute to drinking water supply, agriculture and energy needs. In addition, the catchment area of the Lohit river is a treasure trove of medicinal plants and herbs. Nayan Sharma, a specialist on hydel dams, warned about the high possibility of “extreme erosion” in the watershed of the Lohit river as a result of deforestation in the upstream region of China. “Tree cutting reduces interception and accelerates surface runoff, causing heavy siltation in the river. This is evident in the river’s reddish-brown colour. Climate change is causing recession of glaciers that feed the Lohit. Studies warn glacier retreat will deplete dry season flows in coming decades. Temperature rise may initially increase glacial runoff but could decrease the water volume of the Lohit river eventually. A sustainable water management strategy is urgently required to conserve resources of the Lohit river,” said Sharma, who serves as professor of excellence at Gauhati University and was formerly associated with IIT Roorkee.
China’s plans for harnessing hydel energy will certainly not stop with the Yarlung Zangbo and Lohit rivers. Tibet is the third largest reservoir of freshwater on earth and the source of some of Asia’s most vital rivers. Researchers are not in doubt that dams on the transboundary rivers have not only endangered Tibet’s fragile ecology but have empowered China with political leverage over the downstream countries. Moreover, Beijing has never been transparent on these projects with its neighbours. It charged an exorbitant amount from India for the hydrological information shared on the transboundary rivers. Since 2022, China has stopped sharing data on these rivers.
Meanwhile, in Arunachal Pradesh, the government’s plan to construct a 124-metre high dam on the Lohit river known as the Lower Demwe Hydroelectric Project has been greeted with protests from the local people and environmental activists. The dam will be close to the Kamlang Wildlife Sanctuary and could adversely impact the Dibru-Saikhowa National Park in Assam. The project is also near the significant Hindu pilgrimage site of Parasuram Kund, raising fears about its impact on religious and cultural aspects.
The author is a senior journalist and author of ULFA: The Mirage of Dawn.