Interview/ Michael Kugelman, Expert on US relations with India, Pakistan and Afghanistan
The Donald Trump administration is drawing close scrutiny against the backdrop of the recent India-Pakistan conflict. There has been a slew of theories about the American game-plan or even the lack of it. THE WEEK speaks to Michael Kugelman, a leading Washington, DC-based South Asia analyst.
Q. India has reacted to President Trump claiming credit for the Indo-Pak ceasefire. What do you think is guiding him? What is his Indo-Pak strategy?
A. I am not sure the approach is that strategic. This is likely a case of Trump being intrigued by the complexity and intractability of India-Pakistan relations, and wanting to crack the code so to speak. He is, after all, someone who likes to be seen as the ultimate dealmaker. When he talks of a thousand-year crisis, the hyperbole likely conveys his sense that it’s a serious challenge that he would like to take a stab at fixing.
Q. There is also a feeling that Trump is undermining India. What is your take?
A. Certainly, Trump’s comments won’t go down well in New Delhi because of Indian sensitivities about external involvement in its bilateral crises, and especially involvement that goes public. The question is how Delhi will react. If it simply shrugs this off as a ‘Trump will be Trump’ moment and a reflection of his unpredictability and tendency to say things off the cuff that don’t reflect actual policy, then the damage should be minimal. But if he keeps making these comments and the administration actually makes active efforts to push the sides to hold talks, then the relationship could face some turbulence.
Q. There is a dominant feeling that President Trump’s recent pronouncements have hyphenated India and Pakistan. New Delhi says the perpetrator and the victim cannot be equated. Is there is a thinking behind this in Washington?
A. It doesn’t appear that Trump’s recent comments have hyphenated India and Pakistan, something that indeed has not happened for several decades in terms of US policy. However, I would argue that what Trump has said does not at all reflect US policy. We should read Trump’s recent comments as off-the-cuff remarks. The US policy is not likely to change; we are not likely to see re-hyphenisation. Much of President Trump’s comments reflected the fact that he doesn’t know that much about the context of India-Pakistan relations in US policy. It is quite notable that we have not seen or heard any other US official say anything relating to what Trump has said. That makes it clear that US policy has not changed in the sense that the US will pursue its relations with India and Pakistan on separate tracks even when we are seeing some tensions having crept into US-India relations while there is a surprising boost in US-Pakistan relations. It appears that we will soon see a reversal to the norm in the sense that the US-India relations will be bolstered and the US-Pakistan relations will remain ‘workable but a limited relationship’. There are so many strategic and commercial imperatives from the perspective of both Washington and New Delhi to ensure this partnership endures. Now if Trump were to double down or were to repeat his comments on Kashmir-related issues, certainly that would make things more difficult for New Delhi.
Q. There is also a feeling that the US is treating its friends and foes in a manner alike. The tariff issue, for instance. China has scored much more with its defiance than what India has achieved by negotiating.
A. It should be very clear to all that Trump is a maverick. A very unusual and unconventional type of US leader. He does not treat allies and partners and rivals and competitors with the same kind of rigid system that you would see with most US presidents. While it is true that he sees China as a competitor, he has at many levels intensified competition with China. While he has, like his predecessors, seen Iran as a competitor, there clearly has been differences in other cases―like with Russia.
Indeed, President Trump has indicated that US relations with allies in Europe and East Asia are not necessarily sacrosanct as they might seem. President Trump is someone who doesn’t believe in the notion of strategic partnerships. For him everything is transactional, and that helps understand the way he looks at the world. His foreign policy is driven by transactional considerations and that suggests that whether you are an ally or a rival, on many levels, particularly when it comes to commercial considerations, there is not necessarily that sharp dividing line between friend and foe. We have seen it on the tariffs issue. Indeed, we have seen some of America’s closest partners getting hit hard with tariffs. That is because President Trump believes that doing so can help secure America’s economic interests. He sees the transactional value there.
Q. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, too, did not take a proactive stand during this conflict. Therefore, what is Quad’s future?
A. The Quad will be fine. It’s an entity that derives its strength from a shared strategic goal in countering China. That won’t be impacted by the recent crisis or Trump’s recent comments.
Q. President Trump is seen as having a mercurial streak. Is it a cultivated image?
A. That image can be helpful for Trump, as it keeps both US allies and adversaries on their toes. For a leader who is all about using leverage to pursue transactional goals, that can be very helpful.
Q. Will the policy towards Pakistan change?
A. We shouldn’t mistake Trump’s recent comments for some type of policy shift. At the end of the day, the US and India line up on the same side a lot more than the US and Pakistan do. The US will continue to pursue limited cooperation with Pakistan, but its equities with India run so much deeper.