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Lok Sabha polls: BJP's ultranationalism will be up against caste arithmetic in Bihar

Bihar will go to the polls without Lalu Prasad for the first time in 40 years

Twist in the tale: Shatrughan Sinha joins the Congress at the party headquarters in Delhi on April 6. He wwill contest from Patna Sahib | Arvind Jain

Taking a break from his hectic campaign schedule, Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Tejashwi Yadav rushed to Ranchi on April 7 to meet his father, Lalu Prasad. The Jharkhand Police, however, did not allow the son to meet the father, who is undergoing treatment at Rajendra Institute of Medical Sciences in the Jharkhand capital. The former Bihar chief minister is serving a prison sentence in the fodder scam case, and is allowed to receive visitors only once a week.

Narendra Modi’s appeal is likely to win the BJP more votes in urban constituencies. But in rural Bihar, caste equations still hold the key, giving the grand alliance an edge.

For the first time in 40 years, elections are taking place in Bihar without Lalu’s active participation. The BJP government in Jharkhand is trying to prevent Lalu from calling the shots from his hospital bed. His ward was searched several times in the recent weeks to locate a mobile phone which was allegedly used to pass on instructions to RJD leaders. There is elaborate security in the hospital, and access to Lalu’s room is tightly monitored.

Lalu’s absence is felt in Patna. The RJD had trouble negotiating the division of seats with allies like the Congress, who demanded a bigger share. Tejashwi’s elder brother Tej Pratap rebelled, threatening to field his own nominees from two seats—Sheohar and Jehanabad. He also threatened that he would take on his estranged father-in-law, Chandrika Rai, from Saran. Lalu, however, stepped in to ensure that Tej Pratap’s rebellion was nipped in the bud and that there was only one power centre in the family.

“The grand alliance is unbreakable,” said Tejashwi. “The battle is to protect the Constitution and institutions. Some people have been trying to spread rumours about dissent within the alliance, so we are telling you that we are together.” Tejashwi, who was deputy chief minister in the Nitish Kumar cabinet when the RJD and the Janata Dal (United) were allies, has become the face of the grand alliance. The elections will be a referendum on his role as the key OBC leader from Bihar after Nitish and Lalu.

Although the grand alliance is posing a strong challenge to the National Democratic Alliance, which is in power in Patna and Delhi, BJP leaders are confident about performing well. “With Nitish Kumar as three-term chief minister and Narendra Modi as the face of the campaign, the NDA is hopeful of retaining last time’s tally (31 of 40 seats),” said Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi.

The BJP has given most of its seats to the upper castes including Rajputs, Bhumihars, Brahmins and Kayasths, who constitute its main vote bank. But the party chose to release its list of candidates along with that of nominees from the JD(U) and the Lok Janshakti Party, to show its inclusive nature. While the BJP chose not to field its Muslim face, Shanawaz Hussain, the JD(U) has named a Muslim candidate. And, the announcement was made in Patna, not in Delhi. The BJP is contesting from just 17 seats and has given an equal number of seats to the JD(U). In 2014, the BJP, fighting alone, had won 22 seats. BJP president Amit Shah said there was no insecurity within the party. “We know how to respect our allies,” he said. “These elections are to choose a prime minister, not a chief minister.”

The grand alliance has given tickets to nine upper caste candidates and six Muslim candidates. The RJD has accommodated the demands of its allies by offering them 21 seats. Coalition partners such as the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha and even new entrant Mukesh Sahni’s Vikasshil Insan Party were given tickets. The Congress, in fact, was forced to shift former BJP MP Kirti Azad to Dhanbad in Jharkhand as his sitting seat, Darbhanga, was allotted to an alliance partner. Another prominent BJP rebel who joined the Congress, Shatrughan Sinha, however, is contesting from his Patna Sahib seat against Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad.

The absence of an emotive campaign theme is a cause of worry for both alliances. The BJP is trying to build an anti-Pakistan narrative as its primary campaign issue. In his first couple of rallies in the state, Modi charged that the Congress and Pakistan spoke the same language. The Balakot air strikes have added to the anti-Pakistan theme, giving the BJP an effective campaign plank. The party hopes to counter the caste appeal of the grand alliance with themes of nationalism and hindutva. Prasad, who is taking on Sinha in the Patna Sahib constituency, said Modi went to foreign countries to strengthen India and weaken Pakistan. “Have you seen how Pakistan is isolated?” asked Prasad. “All countries are standing behind us.”

The BJP is confident that Prasad will unseat Sinha. Sushil Modi said anyone nominated by the BJP would win from Patna Sahib. “Sinha will not even find polling agents,” he said. Prasad has the advantage of the BJP’s organisational machinery. Moreover, Patna Sahib is an urban constituency and the BJP has five MLAs from assembly seats falling under the seat. “Patna Sahib’s voice won’t be silenced,” said Prasad, taking a dig at Sinha’s famous film dialogue, “Khamosh (keep quiet)”.

Yet, Sinha is no pushover. His star power has a resonance among ordinary voters. Last time, he had won by over 2.6 lakh votes. “The BJP may win because of its organisation, but Sinha can pull in the crowds. Ordinary people listen to him,” said Abhishek Kumar, who runs a grocery story in Patna. Sinha is the star campaigner for the Congress, which lacks charismatic leaders in Bihar.

The biggest challenge for the Congress is to hard sell its NYAY scheme, which offers up to Rs6,000 per month to the poor. Most people are yet to hear about the scheme, while Modi’s high octane publicity campaign has better recall value. The prime minister is expected to address nearly a dozen rallies in Bihar. The BJP has also lined up another 250 rallies to be addressed by senior NDA leaders. Modi’s appeal is likely to win the BJP more votes in urban constituencies. But in rural Bihar, caste equations still hold the key, giving the grand alliance an edge. The grand alliance hopes its key themes of social justice and fighting for the Constitution will fetch it votes.

The outcome of the Lok Sabha polls may also have repercussions in state politics, which has long been dominated by Lalu and Nitish. Assembly elections are due next year, and a good show by the grand alliance will put pressure on Nitish, who has been chief minister since 2005. The biggest beneficiary of such a verdict will be Tejashwi, who will be able to cement his place as Lalu’s successor and enhance his stature as a key OBC leader from the state and a prominent face of the anti-Modi alliance nationally.

No wonder the RJD refused to support former Jawaharlal Nehru University Students’ Union president Kanhaiya Kumar, who is contesting on a CPI ticket from Begusarai.