Tejashwi Yadav vs Nitish Kumar: Decoding strategies in Bihar's 2025 elections

PATNA

The ghats of Patna hum with their usual mix of ritual and routine. The Ganga moves slow and heavy with silt as workers scoop out slush to ready the steps for the annual Chhath festival. This year, the clean-up is hurried, as devotees will also be voters in a few weeks.

A few steps away, a cluster of young men and women sit cross-legged solving question papers. One student, seated slightly apart, looks up from his sheet. “We are doing a mock test for the sub-inspector exam,” says Sumit Kushwaha, taking a break from his general knowledge paper. “The government has advertised 1,799 posts, the biggest recruitment drive in years. Already 14 lakh people have applied.”

The scene repeats itself across Bihar—students studying in open spaces, on railway platforms and in parks. In Patna’s Gandhi Maidan, hundreds gathered daily for physical training until the ground was taken over for election rallies. In recent months, Bihar has seen several student protests over question paper leaks and job scams. For a state long known for its civil service aspirants but poor in job opportunities, the elections have become an occasion for cautious hope.

Sumit, a political science graduate, says the group has been studying together for months because of the lack of quiet spaces. Beside him sits Pradeep Kumar, who completed his postgraduate degree in mathematics in 2019. Both are preparing to become darogas, or sub-inspectors, a title that carries significant weight in the popular imagination across the Hindi heartland.

Between pages and pencils they talk politics. Sumit says Rashtriya Janata Dal leader and opposition Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav’s promise of “one government job for every family” has found resonance among the youth. “But people may still vote along caste lines,” he adds quickly. Pradeep makes another observation. “When I went to my village recently, women were lining up to register for Nitish Kumar’s Rs10,000 scheme. After so many years, that dole is still attracting people.”

These two promises—Tejashwi’s job guarantee and Nitish’s Rs10,000 cash assistance for women—have become the leitmotif of the Bihar elections. Tejashwi is wooing the restless youth, while Nitish is depending on his loyal base of women voters to carry him through what could be his last election. Over 14 lakh first-time voters have been added this time.

Ironically, every major contender—the Janata Dal (United), the BJP, the RJD and even Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party—is speaking of the same issues: jobs, migration and the economy. It is the one ground they agree on even as they fight bitterly for power in Patliputra.

The National Democratic Alliance, in power for most of the past 20 years, now talks of expanding Bihar’s industrial network. “Earlier we were busy meeting the basic needs of people; now we will move towards industrialisation,” says Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary.

There is another front on which the two main opponents, the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, battle—Lalu Prasad. In the RJD’s strategy Lalu has a silent presence; in the NDA’s campaign, an overarching one. In recent weeks the BJP leadership has sharpened its attacks on Lalu with the usual “jungle raj” jibe, a term originally used by the Patna High Court in a case of municipal mismanagement. Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and Choudhary repeatedly ask: will Tejashwi be any different from his father?

Tejashwi, who became a father for the second time in May this year—his elder daughter Katyayani and son Iraj are named after Hindu deities—remains unfazed by political attacks about the Lalu era. “It doesn’t bother me. This has been on since so many past elections. They don’t have anything new. It is their (NDA leaders’) time to respond on their record. I focus on what I will deliver.”

Question him about the promise of one government job for every family—a tall order for 2.7 crore households, given that the total number of government employees in the state now is only 23 lakh—Tejashwi says he has done his homework. “We have discussed with experts and have already prepared a blueprint.” He has promised to bring a law in 20 days to fulfil his pledge.

The party’s Rajya Sabha MP and academic Manoj Jha elaborates. “First, the budget in Bihar needs to be looked afresh. Second, the commitment is for a span of five years. We will make sure that almost all get one. Third, we would also look at several units in the tertiary sector where, through certain changes, employment can be provided.”

While Tejashwi carries forward the social justice plank of his father and is cushioned by the strong Muslim–Yadav support factor, he is also seeking to expand to “economic justice”. The party has engaged with the Bihari diaspora to convince them to invest in industries in the state.

During the 2020 assembly polls, Tejashwi attracted huge crowds and came tantalisingly close to power. The NDA won with 125 of 243 seats with a 37.26 per cent vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan got 110 seats. However, the difference in the vote share between the two fronts was just 0.03 per cent—less than 12,000 votes—and the RJD still finished as the single largest party.

“But in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the difference in vote share widened to over eight per cent. Though those polls were for electing a prime minister, now with assembly elections being held after just 18 months, it remains to be seen how the Mahagathbandhan will fill the gap,” says Patna University professor Rakesh Ranjan.

At 35, Tejashwi is the youngest chief ministerial candidate in the fray. The other hopefuls—47-year-old Prashant Kishor and 42-year-old Chirag Paswan—also present themselves as youth leaders aspiring for the top post. While Lalu was known for his wit and mercurial ways, Tejashwi’s public utterances have been measured even when faced with criticism and Nitish’s frequent U-turns. “He is a good listener and rarely loses his cool even though alliance talks and seat-sharing negotiations were a hard bargain by allies,” says a party source.

The NDA has a battery of big campaigners including Modi, Shah, Nitish and Chirag Paswan. Tejashwi, meanwhile, often carries the weight of his alliance alone. Dressed in T-shirts embossed with the party symbol and name, he appeals to the youth and is working hard to expand the party’s reach beyond its Muslim–Yadav base to all sections of society, including women.

Tejashwi has been aggressively wooing women with a promise of enhanced remuneration for Jeevika Didis (community mobilisers) and regularising their jobs. While the RJD has allocated nearly half of its seats to Muslim–Yadav aspirants, it has also fielded 20 scheduled caste candidates, one scheduled tribe candidate and 24 women. Other castes are represented by alliance partners such as the Congress, the Left and the Vikassheel Insaan Party of Mukesh Sahani, who has been declared a deputy chief ministerial candidate. Tejashwi has hinted there could be deputy chief ministers from among Muslims and dalits as well.

How the Mahagathbandhan’s pitch of jobs, development and social justice plays out will be seen during the polls, as there are many variables at work. The Congress and Sahani drove a hard bargain in the seat-sharing process. The Congress, energised by Rahul Gandhi’s Vote Adhikar Yatra against the special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, wanted more seats despite its poor record last time. The party contested 70 seats but won only 19, reducing Tejashwi’s chances of becoming chief minister.

Friendly fights between allies in a few seats suggest all sides played a war of nerves, leaving the poll process to decide which candidate to back so that the alliance’s chances are not harmed. “The larger message is that the Mahagathbandhan has emerged as an umbrella alliance which ensures representative justice for all social groups. The campaign against SIR made people alert. It revived the supporters of the entire opposition,” says Pawan Khera, chairman of the Congress’s media and publicity cell.

The contest is much clearer this time. Tejashwi was born in the post-Mandal era, while Nitish is a product of the Mandal period that changed the political map of the country. Nitish has managed to create his own vote base, whether among women or the extremely backward classes (EBCs), whom he has kept satisfied. The recent transfer of Rs10,000 to over one crore women just days ahead of the polls is seen as one of the key factors that has given the NDA an edge before voting begins.

Despite rumours about his failing health, Nitish has been agile and active since the polls were announced. Analysts are calling this his last election, with some questioning whether he will remain chief minister even if the NDA wins. Nitish, however, has proved his ability to bounce back when he is about to be written off. As soon as the polls were declared, Nitish moved swiftly. Initially, there was no joint appearance of the NDA partners, and Nitish began distributing party tickets to his candidates. While Amit Shah had first said that MLAs would choose the chief minister after the polls, the BJP’s tone changed a week later. Soon, all NDA partners came around to the slogan that “there is no vacancy for the CM’s post and Nitish will be CM again”.

The Bihar elections are personal for Modi as well. His government depends on the support of two allies from Bihar, the JD(U) and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). The 29 seats given to Chirag Paswan, though mostly constituencies the NDA lost last time, are seen as an attempt to create a new dalit leader in the state. Chirag has already staked his claim for the chief minister’s post in 2030, causing unease within the JD(U) and a section of the BJP.

It is evident that no party can form a government in the state on its own. Nitish’s party, built over three decades, now faces the test of succession. This has led to growing demands from a section of JD(U) leaders to bring his son, Nishant Kumar, into electoral politics. That option, stalled by Nitish himself, may reappear after the polls, sources indicate.

For the BJP, Bihar remains an unfulfilled dream, as the party has still not had its own chief minister in the state. That, however, could change if Nitish slips further. In 2020, the JD(U) won only 43 of 115 seats it contested. This time, it is contesting 101. Whether votes transfer smoothly between allies is being closely watched. “We will form the government with a big majority. Our alliance is intact,” says BJP state president Dilip Jaiswal.

Nitish has allocated 37 seats to backward classes and 22 to EBCs, along with 22 general-category candidates. The JD(U) has also fielded four Muslims and ten dalits across the Musahar, Manjhi and Ravidas communities, keeping in mind Nitish’s social-engineering plank. The BJP, meanwhile, has leaned heavily on upper-caste consolidation, fielding 49 general candidates. The party has also given tickets to 24 OBCs, 16 EBCs and 11 dalits, with the Paswan community receiving the largest share among dalits.

If Nitish manages to return to power, the support of women voters will again be a key factor. Tejashwi is aware of this and has been trying to win over at least a section of them. He has offered an annual assistance of Rs30,000 for women and promised to provide cooking gas cylinders for under Rs500. The JD(U), however, insists that the RJD’s promises are false. “Jeevika Didi scheme is Nitish’s brainchild. He gave women confidence and security. Women refused to venture out earlier, but now they are independent,” says JD(U) spokesperson Nawal Sharma. The NDA has fielded 35 women candidates, while the Mahagathbandhan has given seats to 32.

Bihar has, however, been an outlier in gender empowerment. Women voters outnumbered men in the last elections. “We find women from lower castes much more independent, as their husbands migrate for work. They take decisions, unlike those from middle or upper castes, who go with the choices of their male family members. This also sets them apart from voters in other Hindi-heartland states. Here women voters are informed and politically conscious,” says Patna University professor Rakesh Ranjan.

This year’s elections are different in several other ways, too. Not everyone believes the name of the chief minister will be clear on November 14, the counting day. One reason for that uncertainty is the presence of Prashant Kishor, an untested factor in Bihar’s poll scenario. Unlike other players in the fray, Kishor, like Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal, has kept his ideology ambivalent. He has made development his theme and, in Kejriwal style, has tried to “expose” the past of many leaders. He has become a talking point in the state, with educated youth and those disillusioned with mainstream politics seeing him as an alternative. However, his decision to challenge Tejashwi for a direct fight and then back out may have dented his image. “He should tell us why he got scared,” Sharma says.

In the 2020 polls, there were more than 50 seats where the victory margin was less than 5,000 votes. This means the Jan Suraaj Party could upset many outcomes, making predictions even more difficult.

Meanwhile, the controversy surrounding the SIR process, which attracted nationwide attention when the exercise began in June, has subsided, with even the opposition agreeing that it is unlikely to affect the outcome. “Our achievement is the number 12. Aadhaar was the 12th document allowed by the Election Commission [for the SIR process] upon the intervention of the Supreme Court, for the voters’ list,” says Tejashwi.

Another variable that could influence the polls is what Pradeep told us at the Ganga ghats: “I will vote for NOTA.” Bihari voters have shown that they would rather vote for none and still be counted. During the 2020 elections, there were 30 seats in which NOTA polled more than the winning margins.

Nitish might fervently hope that it does not come to that. At 74, he is the last of Bihar’s socialist patriarchs. Tejashwi, born a few months before the Mandal announcement in 1990, belongs to the post-Mandal, liberalisation era. Even the other contenders for the top post, such as Chirag and Kishor, come from the same period when change became a constant. These elections may well define their journeys ahead, intertwined with the politics of Bihar for the next 25 years.