Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing a potential coup threat, prompting the Kremlin to increase the personal security around him, according to reports. The fingers are pointed at Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who they believe poses a potential risk to Putin’s power despite losing his ministerial status.
According to a report by Russian investigative journalist Roman Anin, Shoigu, the current Secretary of the Russian Security Council, may pose a potential risk to Putin's system of power. “Increasing friction between the security forces" and "clan infighting" have begun in Russia, while Putin's role as an arbiter between the elites has weakened, according to reports.
"For many years, Shoigu was the leader of an extremely influential clan. He managed to unite a huge number of people under his command while he was Minister of Defense and head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, tying them together in corrupt networks. It's essentially a mafia-style omerta," Anin says in his report. “The arrest of Shoigu's former deputy and close associate, Ruslan Tsalikov, is considered a breach of 'tacit protection agreements among elites' and has weakened Shoigu and increased the likelihood that he himself could become the target of a judicial investigation.”
The report does not provide evidence to support the claims against Shoigu, who was formerly seen as very close to Putin.
However, Russia watchers consider these conclusions unlikely and see the leak as part of an information campaign aimed at destabilising the Russian elite.
Political scientist Abbas Gallyamov agrees that internal conflicts among Russia's security forces and elites are intensifying, with some clans increasingly acting independently, without the Kremlin's previous role as arbiter, but is sceptical of Shoigu's role, calling him a weakened figure without the necessary resources and support. He believes the elites are currently avoiding open confrontation and are instead biding their time, adapting to changing conditions.
British political scientist and Russia expert Mark Galeotti too considers reports of an alleged plot against Putin "deliberate disinformation" rather than a reflection of a real threat. In a column for The Spectator, he notes the "sudden wave of publications" and writes that they "suspiciously resemble a psychological operation designed to sow paranoia among the Russian elite rather than a serious assessment." He too added that Shoigu lacks the authority and trust among the high command to stage a coup. The expert also notes that there is a pressing need in Europe for the idea that Putin will be overthrown in a coup or that the country will collapse from within.
“Ruling elite groups should not be viewed as a single 'elite" with shared interests,” explained political scientist Alexandra Prokopenko on YouTube at Carnegie Politika, citing the lack of significant coup attempts. She says that Putin's system of power as vertical pyramids are built around individual patrons and tied to the distribution of resources and access to decision-making.
“In this model, participants lack a common focal point, and therefore, no preconditions for collective action. As long as representatives of this system receive more from Putin than they could otherwise, there is no incentive for open conflict,” the political scientist believes.